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Following a significant rally, the valuation of gold has begun to decline. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be experiencing a slight capital rotation towards it, as evidenced by Tuesday’s price performance, which led to a recovery of the $112,000 mark.
In this context, asset manager Bitwise has released a new report that outlines promising price prospects for the market’s leading cryptocurrency, despite the challenges it has faced over the past few weeks.
How Gold’s Rise Fuels Bitcoin Opportunities
Authored by Andre Dragosch, Max Shannon, and Aayush Tripathi from Bitwise Europe’s research and analysis department, the report highlights that crypto prices have been underperforming compared to traditional assets, largely due to a bearish market sentiment triggered by renewed weaknesses in US regional bank stocks.
The report emphasizes the fluctuating relative performance of Bitcoin against gold, which tends to vary with changes in cross-asset risk appetite. A renewed risk-on environment could potentially reaffirm Bitcoin’s leadership in performance over gold.
A key catalyst for Bitcoin’s recovery over the coming months could stem from this capital rotation. Gold has experienced a meteoric rise this year, driven by expectations of easier monetary policy and growing concerns regarding US fiscal debt.
According to Bitwise, even a modest capital rotation of just 3% to 4% from gold to Bitcoin could significantly impact the cryptocurrency’s price, potentially doubling its value, as seen in the chart below.
Interestingly, a 5% shift in investments from gold to Bitcoin could increase its price by over 126%, propelling it to $242,391. This is based on a baseline price of $107,240, which is Bitcoin’s price at the time of Bitwise’s publication.
Why Is $118,000 Key For BTC’s Outlook?
Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin’s performance leadership may reassert itself during a risk-on phase. This potential shift is not merely speculative; the report points out that a similar trend occurred in 2020, when Bitcoin began its ascent to new all-time highs in October, coinciding with a stall in gold’s rally that began in July.
The analysts believe this performance pattern could repeat itself, particularly if gold’s rally pauses. They highlight that sustaining gold’s rally typically requires a significantly larger capital influx compared to Bitcoin, which could create headwinds for gold’s continued performance.
Lastly, on-chain analysis reveals a robust liquidity cluster between $93,000 and $118,000, forming a critical boundary between bull and bear market conditions. The report suggests that a decisive move above the upper end of this range at $118,000 could result in a new price rally.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
