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As October comes to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) has disappointed many who had anticipated the month to be a strong one for the cryptocurrency, often referred to as “Uptober” due to its historically positive performance. Instead, Bitcoin finished the month down, creating a gap of approximately 13% from its all-time high.
Historical Trends Suggest Bitcoin Could Rebound
Joel Kruger, a market strategist at LMAX Group, noted that while October was a letdown compared to historical trends, it’s essential to contextualize the price movements. He remarked, “Prices have held up well overall, especially after a September that actually bucked the usual weakness.”
Notably, on the 6th of this month, the market’s leading cryptocurrency reached an all-time high just beyond $126,000. Additionally, the current downturn has failed to erase the year-to-date gains, with Bitcoin still recording a 55% uptrend during this period.
However, according to a recent analysis by Fortune, this October marks the fourth-worst performance for Bitcoin since 2013 and the worst in the past seven years. Bitcoin’s performance lagged behind that of the S&P 500, which saw a gain of roughly 2.3% during the same period.
Despite this under performance, Kruger remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential recovery in the upcoming months. “Historically, Q4 has been one of the best periods for crypto performance,” he stated, expressing hope for a push toward record highs for both Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) as the year draws to a close.
October Challenges
The month proved challenging not only in terms of price but also due to significant market events. Adam McCarthy, a senior research analyst at digital market data provider Kaiko, observed that cryptocurrencies entered October tracking gold and stocks at near all-time highs. However, as uncertainty crept into the market, investors did not flow back into Bitcoin as anticipated.
In addition, October witnessed the largest liquidation event in cryptocurrency history, triggered by President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, alongside threats of export controls on crucial software.
McCarthy commented on the impact of this liquidation, stating, “That washout on the 10th really reminded people that this asset class is very narrow.” He emphasized that even dominant cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum can experience sharp drawdowns, citing instances of 10% declines occurring in just 15 to 20 minutes.
Amid these developments, concerns have been raised by several figures regarding the high valuations in equity markets. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, recently warned of a heightened risk of a significant correction in the US stock market within the next six months to two years.
Jake Ostrovskis, head of trading at Wintermute’s over-the-counter desk, noted that participants in the market remain hesitant as they grapple with the implications of the largest liquidation event on record. He added that this caution persists amid ongoing speculation about vulnerabilities that might still exist within the financial system.
When writing, BTC was trading at $109,688, losing its nearest support floor of $110,000.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
