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Breaking News: White House To Host Crypto And Banking Leaders In Push To Break Regulatory Deadlock

Bitcoin Death Cross That Last Preceded A 66% Drop Is Back

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
Last Updated: January 29, 2026 6:00 am
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin has recently formed a technical crossover that preceded bearish shifts in the past.

Bitcoin Has Seen A Death Cross Between 21-Day & 50-Day SMAs

In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has shared a daily price chart for Bitcoin showcasing a crossover between two simple moving averages (SMAs) that the asset has gone through recently.

An SMA is a statistical tool that averages a quantity over a given period of time and that, as its name suggests, updates in time with the quantity. This tool can be useful for studying long-term trends, as it smooths out the graph by eliminating short-term fluctuations.

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SMAs can be taken over any window, but in the context of the current topic, two specific periods are of relevance: 21-day and 50-day. Below is the chart posted by Martinez that shows the trend in these SMAs for Bitcoin over the past decade.

Bitcoin Death Cross
The 21-day SMA appears to have crossed under the 50-day SMA | Source: @alicharts on X

From the graph, it’s visible that the daily Bitcoin price has seen its 21-day SMA fall below the 50-day one recently. In the past, this crossover has tended to act as a “death cross” for the cryptocurrency, with its price plunging after the signal’s appearance.

In the chart, the analyst has highlighted the previous instances of this death cross. It would appear that the asset experienced drawdowns ranging between 54% and 69% following the crossover.

The most recent occurrence of the crossover was in 2022, leading into a price decline of almost 66% to the bear market bottom. Given the past pattern, it only remains to be seen whether the 21-day SMA going below the 50-day SMA will prove to be bearish for Bitcoin this time.

In the scenario that bearish momentum does follow for the asset, it could be at risk of breaching below an on-chain level known as the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio. This level represents the ratio between two on-chain indicators: the Realized Price and Liveliness.

The first of these tracks the cost basis of the average investor or address on the Bitcoin blockchain, while the latter encapsulates the spending/HODLing behavior of long-term investors.

As Martinez has highlighted in another X post, Bitcoin has been trading near the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio recently.

Bitcoin Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio
The price of the coin has just been holding at the line | Source: @alicharts on X

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio is situated around $87,500 right now. BTC briefly fell below this mark during the Sunday dip, but the coin has since recovered back above it.

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“The last time Bitcoin $BTC fell below the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio, it moved toward the Realized Price,” noted the analyst. Currently, the Realized Price is located at $56,000.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $89,500, up 2% in the last seven days.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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