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Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, recently celebrated a remarkable September, achieving a two-month high of $66,560 last Friday.
Although it fell short of its all-time peak of $73,700 in March, the strong performance in September has raised expectations for significant gains as the year draws close. Historical trends suggest that when Bitcoin ends September positively, the following three months often yield even larger returns.
Best September Ever Could Lead To Major Year-End Rally
Crypto expert Ali Martinez highlighted this historical pattern in a social media post, emphasizing the correlation between a bullish September and subsequent price increases.
As seen in the image below shared by the analyst, Bitcoin has experienced four particularly strong September since 2015, with average gains of over 20% in October, around 10% in November, and over 20% in December.
In contrast, Bitcoin’s past Septembers that ended in the green showed more modest gains, with the last bullish month yielding an average increase of about 8%. This time, however, Bitcoin’s best September in history may pave the way for even higher gains than those recorded in previous years.
Currently trading at $62,000, Bitcoin’s potential trajectory appears promising. If the cryptocurrency adheres to historical averages following bullish Septembers—projected gains of 20% in October, 10% in November, and another 20% in December—BTC could realistically approach a price of nearly $98,000 by year-end.
Moreover, it’s important to note that the cryptocurrency tends to go on a “parabolic bull run” in October of each Halving year, as Martinez also pointed out, adding to the bullish outlook for what could be one of the best fourth quarters in Bitcoin’s history.
Options Market Suggests Potential Bitcoin Dip Ahead
While Martinez is optimistic about BTC’s potential for significant gains in October, one expert is cautious about the current market dynamics. Analyst InspoCrypto recently noted that the options market presents a more cautious picture.
Data indicates that many positions are leaning towards a bearish outlook, with some block trades suggesting a potential dip in Bitcoin’s price, specifically targeting ranges between $60,000 and $55,000.
The current “max pain” point—where the most options would expire worthless—is $62,000. Given that the price is hovering near this level, there is concern that this could contribute to continuing the bearish trend.
Additionally, the analyst pointed out that long positions around the $60,000 mark are vulnerable to liquidation. However, despite these cautious signals for October, the outlook beyond this month appears much more optimistic.
InspoCrypto emphasized that data from the options market shows a strong bullish sentiment for the months following October. Many traders are anticipating Bitcoin prices to exceed $80,000, with some even forecasting a rise to $100,000.
Suppose a dip does occur in mid-October, as some data suggests. In that case, the analyst believes it may represent the last opportunity for investors to enter before Bitcoin embarks on a significant upward trajectory.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
