Politics 预测市场
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Before Jun 1, 2026
Before May 15, 2026
US$223,801 交易量（24 小时）
How long will the government shutdown last?
At least 100 days
At least 110 days
US$116,729 交易量（24 小时）
US-Iran nuclear deal?
Before July
Before June
US$78,878 交易量（24 小时）
Kash Patel out as FBI Director?
Before Jun 1, 2026
Before May 1, 2026
US$49,297 交易量（24 小时）
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?
Lee Zeldin
Todd Blanche
US$47,599 交易量（24 小时）
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
Howard Lutnick
Karoline Leavitt
US$35,530 交易量（24 小时）
How many Gold Cards will Trump issue before May?
0
1 to 5
US$35,065 交易量（24 小时）
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Pete Hegseth
US$22,326 交易量（24 小时）
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?
Before Sep 1, 2026
Before Aug 1, 2026
US$21,300 交易量（24 小时）
How many House votes to expel Eric Swalwell?
Above 218
Above 230
US$19,706 交易量（24 小时）
Will Trump be impeached?
Before Jan 1, 2028
Before Jan 1, 2027
US$19,143 交易量（24 小时）
How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Apr 2026?
1
0
US$18,975 交易量（24 小时）
Keir Starmer Out?
Before Sep 1, 2026
Before Jul 1, 2026
US$16,307 交易量（24 小时）
Who will visit Venezuela before May?
María Corina Machado
Edmundo González Urrutia
US$14,063 交易量（24 小时）
When will DHS be funded again?
Before Jun 1, 2026
Before May 22, 2026
US$13,165 交易量（24 小时）
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Before 2027
Before August
US$12,982 交易量（24 小时）
Will the SAVE Act become law?
- 100 美元 → $833
- 100 美元 → $112
US$12,943 交易量（24 小时）
When will Trump visit China?
Before Jun 1, 2026
Before May 15, 2026
US$11,249 交易量（24 小时）
Trump's approval rating on Apr 24, 2026?
Below 41.1
41.4 to 41.6
US$11,004 交易量（24 小时）
Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Before 2028
Before 2027
US$8,748 交易量（24 小时）
Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration?
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before May 1, 2026
US$8,274 交易量（24 小时）
Which bills will become law in 2026?
Housing for the 21st Century Act
Critical-minerals stockpile
US$7,832 交易量（24 小时）
Will Donald Trump visit Iran?
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Jun 1, 2026
US$7,598 交易量（24 小时）
Who will visit the White House in 2026?
Claudia Sheinbaum
Xi Jinping
US$7,547 交易量（24 小时）
Which Senators will vote to advance the SAVE America Act?
Rand Paul
Susan Collins
US$6,923 交易量（24 小时）
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
$0 / No Acquisition
$600 billion to $899 billion
US$6,853 交易量（24 小时）
When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Before Jun 1, 2026
Before May 15, 2026
US$6,712 交易量（24 小时）
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
- 100 美元 → $625
- 100 美元 → $118
US$6,551 交易量（24 小时）
Will crypto market structure legislation become law?
Before 2027
Before August
US$5,293 交易量（24 小时）
Who will leave Congress before July?
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
Cory Mills
US$4,619 交易量（24 小时）
Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota?
Before 2027
Before July
US$4,137 交易量（24 小时）
Will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Sep 1, 2026
US$4,057 交易量（24 小时）
