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Science and Technology Mercados preditivos
Best AI this week
Claude
ChatGPT
abr. 25 · 4:00AM
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- U$ 100 → $474
- U$ 100 → $126
US$ 78.677 vol. (24h)
Top AI model in April?
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
abr. 30 · 4:00AM
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Claude
Gemini
dez. 31 · 1:00PM
Top AI model this week
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-6
abr. 25 · 4:00AM
Best AI in Apr 2026?
Claude
ChatGPT
US$ 18.745 vol. (24h)
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- U$ 100 → $185
- U$ 100 → $213
US$ 9.640 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA A100 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $1.06
Above $1.07
US$ 6.823 vol. (24h)
Top Coding AI this month
Claude
ChatGPT
abr. 30 · 4:00AM
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2030
Before 2028
US$ 3.914 vol. (24h)
NVIDIA H100 SXM Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 24, 2026?
- U$ 100 → $164
- U$ 100 → $250
US$ 3.231 vol. (24h)
NVIDIA A100 SXM4 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 24, 2026?
- U$ 100 → $111
- U$ 100 → $526
US$ 3.157 vol. (24h)
Measles cases in 2026?
Above 4000
Above 6000
US$ 2.404 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $0.46
Above $0.48
US$ 2.114 vol. (24h)
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic
OpenAI
dez. 31 · 1:00PM
NVIDIA B200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 24, 2026?
- U$ 100 → $132
- U$ 100 → $294
US$ 1.446 vol. (24h)
When will Anthropic release Claude 5?
Before Sep 1, 2026
Before Aug 1, 2026
US$ 1.387 vol. (24h)
Will Anthropic release Claude 5 this year?
- U$ 100 → $110
- U$ 100 → $1,000
US$ 1.365 vol. (24h)
NVIDIA RTX 5090 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 24, 2026?
- U$ 100 → $263
- U$ 100 → $145
US$ 1.218 vol. (24h)
Will SpaceX test its HLS before 2027?
- U$ 100 → $625
- U$ 100 → $116
US$ 1.102 vol. (24h)
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
- U$ 100 → $145
- U$ 100 → $303
US$ 1.001 vol. (24h)
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- U$ 100 → $392
- U$ 100 → $132
US$ 1.005 vol. (24h)
AI capability growth before July?
At least 1525 score
At least 1550 score
jul. 1 · 4:00AM
Price of NVIDIA B200 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $4.52
Above $4.51
US$ 593 vol. (24h)
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?
Jack Thorne
Yu Deng
US$ 549 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA H100 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $1.91
Above $1.86
US$ 550 vol. (24h)
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
OpenAI
xAI
US$ 525 vol. (24h)
NASA lands on the moon?
Before 2030
Before 2029
US$ 487 vol. (24h)
When will AI solve another Frontier Math Problem?
Before October
Before July
jun. 30 · 4:00AM
US test scores in Reading in 2026?
Significant decrease
No significant difference
US$ 446 vol. (24h)
Top Coding AI this week
ChatGPT
Dola
abr. 25 · 4:00AM
When will xAI release Grok 5?
Before October
Before 2027
US$ 375 vol. (24h)
