Science and Technology Prediction Markets
Best AI this week
Claude
ChatGPT
Apr 25 · 4:00AM
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- $100 → $444
- $100 → $129
$99,996 vol. (24h)
Top AI model this week
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
Apr 25 · 4:00AM
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Claude
Gemini
Dec 31 · 1:00PM
Top AI model in April?
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
Best AI in Apr 2026?
Claude
ChatGPT
$15,841 vol. (24h)
When will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
Before June
Before July
$11,076 vol. (24h)
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- $100 → $149
- $100 → $250
$9,516 vol. (24h)
Top Coding AI this month
Claude
ChatGPT
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2030
Before 2028
$2,962 vol. (24h)
Measles cases in 2026?
Above 4000
Above 6000
$1,872 vol. (24h)
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- $100 → $372
- $100 → $132
$1,611 vol. (24h)
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic
OpenAI
Dec 31 · 1:00PM
NVIDIA B200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 24, 2026?
- $100 → $185
- $100 → $204
$1,237 vol. (24h)
Will SpaceX test its HLS before 2027?
- $100 → $526
- $100 → $118
$1,102 vol. (24h)
AI capability growth before July?
At least 1525 score
At least 1550 score
Jul 1 · 4:00AM
Will Anthropic release Claude 5 this year?
- $100 → $111
- $100 → $909
$895 vol. (24h)
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?
Jack Thorne
Yu Deng
$855 vol. (24h)
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
OpenAI
xAI
$778 vol. (24h)
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
United States
China
$733 vol. (24h)
When will xAI release Grok 5?
Before October
Before July
$674 vol. (24h)
When will Anthropic release Claude 5?
Before Aug 1, 2026
Before Jul 1, 2026
$644 vol. (24h)
Will Apple release a Macbook with cellular connectivity before 2027?
- $100 → $400
- $100 → $128
$653 vol. (24h)
When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
Before 2027
Before September
Apr 14 · 4:00AM
NVIDIA H100 SXM Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 24, 2026?
- $100 → $313
- $100 → $135
$623 vol. (24h)
When will AI solve another Frontier Math Problem?
Before October
Before July
Jun 30 · 4:00AM
NASA lands on the moon?
Before 2030
Before 2029
$594 vol. (24h)
Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year?
- $100 → $370
- $100 → $125
$457 vol. (24h)
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
- $100 → $143
- $100 → $303
$425 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA H100 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $1.91
Above $1.86
$427 vol. (24h)
US test scores in Reading in 2026?
Significant decrease
No significant difference
$442 vol. (24h)
Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
Claude
Gemini
$377 vol. (24h)
