Marchés de prédiction indisponibles.
Science and Technology Prédictions
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- 100 $ → $500
- 100 $ → $123
Volume : 259 805 $US (24h)
Best AI in Feb 2026?
Claude
Gemini
Volume : 98 175 $US (24h)
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Claude
Gemini
Volume : 22 042 $US (24h)
What will be the top AI model this month?
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-6
Volume : 21 860 $US (24h)
NASA lands on the moon?
Before 2028
Before 2027
Volume : 5 068 $US (24h)
Measles cases in 2026?
Above 6000
Above 8000
Volume : 4 016 $US (24h)
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2030
Before 2028
Volume : 3 524 $US (24h)
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- 100 $ → $204
- 100 $ → $192
Volume : 2 616 $US (24h)
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic
OpenAI
Volume : 2 390 $US (24h)
Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?
Atomic Alchemy
Antares Nuclear
Volume : 1 814 $US (24h)
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- 100 $ → $385
- 100 $ → $133
Volume : 1 584 $US (24h)
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
OpenAI
xAI
Volume : 1 530 $US (24h)
AI capability growth before July?
At least 1550 score
At least 1575 score
Volume : 1 306 $US (24h)
When will xAI release Grok 5?
Before 2027
Before July
Volume : 1 124 $US (24h)
Will Meta release Llama 5 this year?
- 100 $ → $303
- 100 $ → $143
Volume : 1 111 $US (24h)
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2027?
- 100 $ → $294
- 100 $ → $147
Volume : 755 $US (24h)
Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
Claude
Gemini
Volume : 569 $US (24h)
Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?
- 100 $ → $185
- 100 $ → $208
Volume : 466 $US (24h)
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
- 100 $ → $179
- 100 $ → $222
Volume : 387 $US (24h)
Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- 100 $ → $200
- 100 $ → $189
Volume : 337 $US (24h)
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
United States
China
Volume : 320 $US (24h)
Will any of the major AI companies pause research for safety reasons before 2027?
- 100 $ → $625
- 100 $ → $116
Volume : 280 $US (24h)
When will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
Before May
Before April
Volume : 264 $US (24h)
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
- 100 $ → $200
- 100 $ → $185
Volume : 252 $US (24h)
AI capability growth this year?
At least 1550 score
At least 1600 score
Volume : 246 $US (24h)
Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?
- 100 $ → $357
- 100 $ → $135
Volume : 228 $US (24h)
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?
At least 445
At least 450
Volume : 176 $US (24h)
Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
- 100 $ → $400
- 100 $ → $132
Volume : 151 $US (24h)
US test scores in Math in 2026?
Significant decrease
No significant difference
Volume : 149 $US (24h)
What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
Computer
Clip-on device for clothing
Volume : 114 $US (24h)
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?
Yu Deng
Jack Thorne
Volume : 105 $US (24h)
US test scores in Reading in 2026?
Significant decrease
No significant difference
Volume : 101 $US (24h)
