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Science and Technology Prediction Markets
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- $100 → $488
- $100 → $126
$103,050 vol. (24h)
Top AI model in April?
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-6
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Claude
Gemini
Dec 31 · 1:00PM
Best AI this week?
Claude
Gemini
Apr 18 · 4:00AM
Top AI model this week
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-6
Apr 18 · 4:00AM
Top Coding AI this week
Claude
Grok
Apr 18 · 4:00AM
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2030
Before 2028
$10,975 vol. (24h)
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
OpenAI
xAI
$8,598 vol. (24h)
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic
OpenAI
Dec 31 · 1:00PM
Top Coding AI this month
Claude
Qwen
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
When will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
Before July
Before May
$5,038 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA A100 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $1.05
Above $1.06
$4,297 vol. (24h)
AI capability growth before July?
At least 1525 score
At least 1550 score
Jul 1 · 4:00AM
Measles cases in 2026?
Above 4000
Above 6000
$3,401 vol. (24h)
When will Anthropic release Mythos?
Before Aug 1, 2026
Before Jul 1, 2026
Jun 30 · 4:00AM
When will xAI release Grok 5?
Before 2027
Before July
$1,629 vol. (24h)
NASA lands on the moon?
Before 2030
Before 2029
$1,632 vol. (24h)
Will Meta release Llama 5 this year?
- $100 → $333
- $100 → $132
$1,504 vol. (24h)
When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?
Before 2028
Before October 2027
Jun 30 · 4:00AM
Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
Claude
Gemini
$1,451 vol. (24h)
Will there be a year without polio before 2030?
- $100 → $1,429
- $100 → $104
$1,436 vol. (24h)
When will AI solve another Frontier Math Problem?
Before October
Before July
Jun 30 · 4:00AM
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- $100 → $333
- $100 → $141
$834 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA B200 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $4.50
Above $4.52
$738 vol. (24h)
What will be the price of a foldable iPhone?
At least $2000
At least $2200
$701 vol. (24h)
What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
At least 2000
At least 5000
$703 vol. (24h)
Best AI in Apr 2026?
Claude
ChatGPT
$661 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA H100 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $1.83
Above $1.81
$583 vol. (24h)
NVIDIA RTX 5090 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026?
- $100 → $109
- $100 → $106
$561 vol. (24h)
When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
Before 2027
Before September
Apr 14 · 4:00AM
NVIDIA H200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026?
- $100 → $103
- $100 → $127
$488 vol. (24h)
NVIDIA B200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026?
- $100 → $122
- $100 → $152
$477 vol. (24h)
