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Science and Technology Prediction Markets
Best AI this week
Claude
Gemini
May 2 · 4:00AM
Best AI in Apr 2026?
LLaMA
Gemini
$115,748 vol. (24h)
Top AI model in April?
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-6
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- $100 → $488
- $100 → $125
$90,631 vol. (24h)
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Claude
Gemini
Dec 31 · 1:00PM
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
OpenAI
xAI
$12,118 vol. (24h)
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic
OpenAI
Dec 31 · 1:00PM
Top Coding AI this month
ChatGPT
Gemini
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2030
Before 2028
$6,894 vol. (24h)
Top AI model this week
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
claude-opus-4-6
May 2 · 4:00AM
NVIDIA A100 SXM4 Compute Price Up or Down by May 1, 2026?
- $100 → $135
- $100 → $333
$4,668 vol. (24h)
What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
At least 2000
At least 5000
$3,797 vol. (24h)
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- $100 → $244
- $100 → $164
$3,548 vol. (24h)
Measles cases in 2026?
Above 4000
Above 6000
$3,035 vol. (24h)
NVIDIA B200 Compute Price Up or Down by May 1, 2026?
- $100 → $108
- $100 → $256
$2,738 vol. (24h)
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- $100 → $417
- $100 → $128
$2,474 vol. (24h)
Top Coding AI this week
Claude
ChatGPT
May 2 · 4:00AM
Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
- $100 → $588
- $100 → $119
$1,326 vol. (24h)
AI capability growth before July?
At least 1525 score
At least 1550 score
Jul 1 · 4:00AM
Will any of the major AI companies pause research for safety reasons before 2027?
- $100 → $769
- $100 → $114
$876 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA B200 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $4.71
Above $4.89
$898 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA H100 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $1.92
Above $1.83
$659 vol. (24h)
Will Apple release a Macbook with cellular connectivity before 2027?
- $100 → $313
- $100 → $135
$668 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $0.45
Above $0.46
$628 vol. (24h)
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
United States
China
$584 vol. (24h)
NASA lands on the moon?
Before 2030
Before 2029
$440 vol. (24h)
Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?
- $100 → $176
- $100 → $212
$398 vol. (24h)
Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
Claude
Gemini
$397 vol. (24h)
When will Anthropic release Claude 5?
Before Sep 1, 2026
Before Aug 1, 2026
$357 vol. (24h)
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
- $100 → $159
- $100 → $263
$326 vol. (24h)
When will xAI release Grok 5?
Before October
Before 2027
$350 vol. (24h)
Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year?
- $100 → $333
- $100 → $133
$330 vol. (24h)
