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Science and Technology Prediction Markets
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- $100 → $465
- $100 → $126
$92,587 vol. (24h)
Top AI model in April?
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Claude
ChatGPT
Dec 31 · 1:00PM
Best AI in Apr 2026?
Claude
ChatGPT
$17,945 vol. (24h)
Best AI this week
Claude
ChatGPT
May 2 · 4:00AM
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic
OpenAI
Dec 31 · 1:00PM
Measles cases in 2026?
Above 4000
Above 6000
$5,676 vol. (24h)
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- $100 → $227
- $100 → $167
$4,339 vol. (24h)
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2030
Before 2028
$4,040 vol. (24h)
Top Coding AI this month
Qwen
ChatGPT
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
Top Coding AI this week
Claude
ChatGPT
May 2 · 4:00AM
Price of NVIDIA H100 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $1.60
Above $1.92
$2,294 vol. (24h)
NASA lands on the moon?
Before 2030
Before 2029
$1,903 vol. (24h)
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- $100 → $395
- $100 → $131
$1,780 vol. (24h)
When will Anthropic release Mythos?
Before Sep 1, 2026
Before Aug 1, 2026
Jun 30 · 4:00AM
Top AI model this week
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-6
May 2 · 4:00AM
When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
Before Oct 1, 2026
Before Aug 1, 2026
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
Will Apple release a Macbook with cellular connectivity before 2027?
- $100 → $357
- $100 → $127
$1,042 vol. (24h)
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
OpenAI
xAI
$976 vol. (24h)
Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
Claude
ChatGPT
$839 vol. (24h)
NVIDIA H200 Compute Price Up or Down by May 1, 2026?
- $100 → $1,111
- $100 → $108
$766 vol. (24h)
What will be the price of a foldable iPhone?
At least $2000
At least $2200
$689 vol. (24h)
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?
Jack Thorne
John Pardon
$525 vol. (24h)
Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?
- $100 → $143
- $100 → $278
$500 vol. (24h)
Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?
Atomic Alchemy
Radiant Industries
$389 vol. (24h)
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
- $100 → $156
- $100 → $250
$295 vol. (24h)
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
- $100 → $503
- $100 → $120
$215 vol. (24h)
What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
At least 2000
At least 5000
$182 vol. (24h)
When will AI solve another Frontier Math Problem?
Before October
Before July
Jun 30 · 4:00AM
What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
Earbuds/Headphones
Clip-on device for clothing
$197 vol. (24h)
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?
- $100 → $213
- $100 → $175
$208 vol. (24h)
AI capability growth before July?
At least 1525 score
At least 1550 score
Jul 1 · 4:00AM
