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Science and Technology Prediction Markets
Best AI this week
Claude
ChatGPT
May 2 · 4:00AM
Top AI model in April?
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- $100 → $485
- $100 → $126
$77,403 vol. (24h)
Best AI in Apr 2026?
Claude
LLaMA
$73,409 vol. (24h)
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Claude
Gemini
Dec 31 · 1:00PM
Measles cases in 2026?
Above 4000
Above 6000
$10,288 vol. (24h)
Top AI model this week
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
May 2 · 4:00AM
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- $100 → $213
- $100 → $182
$5,362 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA H100 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $1.83
Above $1.91
$5,226 vol. (24h)
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic
OpenAI
Dec 31 · 1:00PM
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2030
Before 2028
$3,681 vol. (24h)
What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
At least 2000
At least 5000
$3,431 vol. (24h)
Top Coding AI this month
ChatGPT
Gemini
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
- $100 → $147
- $100 → $263
$2,230 vol. (24h)
Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
- $100 → $526
- $100 → $122
$1,466 vol. (24h)
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
OpenAI
xAI
$1,314 vol. (24h)
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?
Jack Thorne
John Pardon
$1,059 vol. (24h)
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- $100 → $365
- $100 → $131
$998 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $0.45
Above $0.46
$982 vol. (24h)
What will be the price of a foldable iPhone?
At least $2000
At least $2200
$902 vol. (24h)
AI capability growth before July?
At least 1525 score
At least 1550 score
Jul 1 · 4:00AM
Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?
- $100 → $176
- $100 → $221
$461 vol. (24h)
Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
Claude
ChatGPT
$458 vol. (24h)
When will Anthropic release Claude 5?
Before Sep 1, 2026
Before Aug 1, 2026
$394 vol. (24h)
When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?
Before October 2027
Before July 2027
Jun 30 · 4:00AM
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- $100 → $189
- $100 → $204
$347 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA B200 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $4.51
Above $4.54
$314 vol. (24h)
When will xAI release Grok 5?
Before October
Before July
$314 vol. (24h)
Top Coding AI this week
Claude
ChatGPT
May 2 · 4:00AM
When will AI solve another Frontier Math Problem?
Before October
Before July
Jun 30 · 4:00AM
When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
Before November
Before September
$204 vol. (24h)
Will Apple release a Macbook with cellular connectivity before 2027?
- $100 → $357
- $100 → $130
$198 vol. (24h)
