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Science and Technology Prediction Markets
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- $100 → $485
- $100 → $126
$71,164 vol. (24h)
Top AI model in April?
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Claude
ChatGPT
Dec 31 · 1:00PM
Best AI in Apr 2026?
Claude
ChatGPT
$15,320 vol. (24h)
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic
OpenAI
Dec 31 · 1:00PM
Measles cases in 2026?
Above 4000
Above 6000
$4,079 vol. (24h)
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- $100 → $233
- $100 → $172
$3,926 vol. (24h)
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?
Jacob Tsimerman
Jack Thorne
$3,716 vol. (24h)
Top Coding AI this month
Qwen
ChatGPT
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2030
Before 2028
$2,636 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA H100 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $1.60
Above $1.92
$2,379 vol. (24h)
NASA lands on the moon?
Before 2030
Before 2029
$1,988 vol. (24h)
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- $100 → $385
- $100 → $132
$1,795 vol. (24h)
When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
Before Aug 1, 2026
Before Jul 1, 2026
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
When will Anthropic release Mythos?
Before Sep 1, 2026
Before Aug 1, 2026
Jun 30 · 4:00AM
Top AI model this week
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-6
May 2 · 4:00AM
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
OpenAI
xAI
$1,055 vol. (24h)
Will Apple release a Macbook with cellular connectivity before 2027?
- $100 → $357
- $100 → $127
$993 vol. (24h)
What will be the price of a foldable iPhone?
At least $2000
At least $2200
$628 vol. (24h)
Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?
- $100 → $143
- $100 → $278
$507 vol. (24h)
Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?
Atomic Alchemy
Radiant Industries
$439 vol. (24h)
Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
Claude
ChatGPT
$421 vol. (24h)
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
- $100 → $154
- $100 → $256
$303 vol. (24h)
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
United States
China
$272 vol. (24h)
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
- $100 → $503
- $100 → $120
$215 vol. (24h)
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?
- $100 → $213
- $100 → $175
$206 vol. (24h)
When will xAI release Grok 5?
Before 2027
Before July
$191 vol. (24h)
AI capability growth before July?
At least 1525 score
At least 1550 score
Jul 1 · 4:00AM
What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
At least 2000
At least 5000
$124 vol. (24h)
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?
At least 445
At least 450
$152 vol. (24h)
When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
Before 2027
Before September
$149 vol. (24h)
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
- $100 → $333
- $100 → $135
$138 vol. (24h)
