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Science and Technology Prediction Markets
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- $100 → $467
- $100 → $127
$93,996 vol. (24h)
Best AI this week
Grok
Qwen
May 2 · 4:00AM
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Claude
Gemini
Dec 31 · 1:00PM
Price of NVIDIA H100 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $1.67
Above $1.95
$12,570 vol. (24h)
Best AI in May 2026?
Claude
Gemini
$11,171 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA B200 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $4.50
Above $4.85
$9,065 vol. (24h)
Top AI model this week
claude-opus-4-6
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
May 2 · 4:00AM
Price of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $0.48
Above $0.50
$5,069 vol. (24h)
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic
OpenAI
Dec 31 · 1:00PM
Top Coding AI this month
Claude
ChatGPT
May 31 · 4:00AM
Top AI model this month
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-6
May 31 · 4:00AM
What will be the price of a foldable iPhone?
At least $2000
At least $2200
$3,088 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA A100 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $1.14
Above $1.15
$2,570 vol. (24h)
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- $100 → $397
- $100 → $129
$2,313 vol. (24h)
Measles cases in 2026?
Above 4000
Above 6000
$1,366 vol. (24h)
What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
Phone
Earbuds/Headphones
$1,296 vol. (24h)
Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
Claude
Gemini
$948 vol. (24h)
NASA lands on the moon?
Before 2030
Before 2029
$806 vol. (24h)
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- $100 → $200
- $100 → $192
$665 vol. (24h)
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- $100 → $233
- $100 → $172
$548 vol. (24h)
Top Coding AI this week
Claude
ChatGPT
May 2 · 4:00AM
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
OpenAI
xAI
$527 vol. (24h)
When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
Before Sep 1, 2026
Before Aug 1, 2026
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
AI capability growth before July?
At least 1525 score
At least 1550 score
Jul 1 · 4:00AM
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2030
Before 2028
$420 vol. (24h)
Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?
- $100 → $182
- $100 → $209
$317 vol. (24h)
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?
Jack Thorne
Yu Deng
$270 vol. (24h)
When will AI solve another Frontier Math Problem?
Before October
Before July
Jun 30 · 4:00AM
When will Anthropic release Claude 5?
Before Aug 1, 2026
Before Jul 1, 2026
$207 vol. (24h)
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?
At least 445
At least 450
$189 vol. (24h)
Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?
Atomic Alchemy
Radiant Industries
$196 vol. (24h)
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?
- $100 → $179
- $100 → $222
$153 vol. (24h)
