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Science and Technology Prediction Markets
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- $100 → $457
- $100 → $128
$193,727 vol. (24h)
Top AI model this week
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
Apr 25 · 4:00AM
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Claude
Gemini
Dec 31 · 1:00PM
Top AI model in April?
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-6
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
Best AI this week
Claude
ChatGPT
Apr 25 · 4:00AM
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- $100 → $147
- $100 → $278
$17,878 vol. (24h)
Measles cases in 2026?
Above 4000
Above 6000
$4,087 vol. (24h)
Best AI in Apr 2026?
Claude
ChatGPT
$2,272 vol. (24h)
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- $100 → $362
- $100 → $136
$2,126 vol. (24h)
When will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
Before May
Before July
$1,825 vol. (24h)
What will be the price of a foldable iPhone?
At least $2000
At least $2200
$1,450 vol. (24h)
When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?
Before 2028
Before July 2027
Jun 30 · 4:00AM
When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
before December
before November
Aug 31 · 4:00AM
Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?
Atomic Alchemy
Radiant Industries
$1,195 vol. (24h)
NASA lands on the moon?
Before 2030
Before 2029
$1,188 vol. (24h)
Will any of the major AI companies pause research for safety reasons before 2027?
- $100 → $1,000
- $100 → $110
$1,085 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA H100 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $1.82
Above $1.86
$1,094 vol. (24h)
Top Coding AI this week
Claude
Dola
Apr 25 · 4:00AM
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic
OpenAI
Dec 31 · 1:00PM
When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
Before 2035
Before 2030
$709 vol. (24h)
Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year?
- $100 → $370
- $100 → $122
$676 vol. (24h)
Top Coding AI this month
Qwen
Kimi
Apr 30 · 4:00AM
Will Apple release a Macbook with cellular connectivity before 2027?
- $100 → $556
- $100 → $111
$600 vol. (24h)
When will Anthropic release Mythos?
Before Aug 1, 2026
Before Jul 1, 2026
Jun 30 · 4:00AM
What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
At least 2000
At least 5000
$473 vol. (24h)
When will Anthropic release Claude 5?
Before Aug 1, 2026
Before Jul 1, 2026
$386 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA H200 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $2.55
Above $2.69
$338 vol. (24h)
Price of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute by Apr 30, 2026?
Above $0.46
Above $0.47
$298 vol. (24h)
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
OpenAI
xAI
$296 vol. (24h)
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?
Jack Thorne
Yu Deng
$270 vol. (24h)
Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
Claude
Gemini
$239 vol. (24h)
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
United States
China
$248 vol. (24h)
