XRP has officially entered a period of "capitulation," according to new on-chain data from analytics firm Glassnode.
The controversial altcoin has lost its aggregate holder cost basis, a critical technical and psychological level.
This, according to the analytics firm, has triggered a wave of panic selling that mirrors the bearish consolidation phase seen between late 2021 and early 2022.
SOPR plunges below 1.0
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is the key indicator to watch. This metric tracks the profit or loss realized by coins moving on-chain. A value above 1.0 indicates that, on average, coins are being sold for a profit. A value below 1.0 indicates coins are being sold at a loss.
According to Glassnode, XRP’s SOPR has collapsed from a euphoric high of 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96 today.
The catalyst for this sell-off appears to be the loss of the Aggregate Holder Cost Basis. This metric represents the average price at which all holders acquired their XRP.
Psychologically, this is a moment of maximum stress. Investors who held on during the initial price drop in hopes of a rebound are now seeing red in their portfolios.
Echoes of 2021-2022
There are some similarities between XRP's current price actions and the period from September 2021 to May 2022. During that period, XRP’s SOPR plunged into the sub-1.0 range and remained suppressed for months.
If the current setup follows that historical pattern, XRP traders should not expect a V-shaped recovery. Instead, the market may face weeks or months of sideways-to-downward price action.
XRP's price performance
The year began with bullish momentum. XRP staged a strong breakout in the first few weeks of 2026. Buying pressure pushed the price to a local peak of approximately $2.45.
However, momentum stalled in mid-January, and the ball appeared in the bears' court once again.
The price of XRP recently collapsed to a wick low of approximately $1.12.
Vladislav Sopov
Dan Burgin
