According to JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the price of Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, could theoretically reach the $170,000 level if it gets valued the same as gold.
This is not a prediction, but a theoretical comparison to show Bitcoin’s upside potential.
The strategist has adjusted for Bitcoin’s higher volatility compared to gold.
JPMorgan has estimated Bitcoin’s production cost (cost to mine one BTC) is around $90,000, down from $94,000 in mid-November.
This decline is due to lower hash rate and lower mining difficulty after China strengthened its mining ban.
The strategist sees the production cost as a soft price floor, meaning that miners won’t sell below cost.
Will MSTR spoil a potential rally?
An upcoming decision by MSCI, a major index provider, could affect both Strategy and, indirectly, Bitcoin.
MSCI periodically reviews which assets are included in its indices. If Strategy is excluded from a single MSCI index, investors might pull about $2.8 billion out of the fund, according to JPMorgan's estimates (or nearly $9 billion if it gets excluded from all indices).
The actual MSCI announcement may not have a dramatic impact on Bitcoin price since the potential excursion had been priced in.
Gold's big year
Gold is on track to record its best calendar year since 1979, vastly outperforming BTC.
The yellow metal is up 62% against its digital rival this year, demolishing the "safe haven" narrative pushed by Bitcoin advocates.
The confluence of rate-cut expectations, US dollar weakness, and geopolitical risk created the perfect environment for a substantial gold rally.
In 2025, central banks (especially China, India, and Turkey) continued record gold purchases.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, recently plummeted to $80,000. However, JPMorgan is convinced that the flagship cryptocurrency will be able to outperform in 2026.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team
