By Tyler Warner
8 min read
Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. And check out our new daily news show covering all of the top stories in 5 minutes, downloadable on Apple Pod or Spotify.
GM!
Today’s top news:
Jeff Sprecher, founder of Intercontinental Exchange and the architect of the modern NYSE, sat down at Bernstein’s 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference this week and said something the traditional finance world will struggle to ignore: Hyperliquid is bigger than Nasdaq by volume, was built by 11 people, and can’t be dismissed.
“You look at it, you’re like, wow, that’s pretty something.” On the team: “The people that have built that exchange are extremely smart... I salute these guys for doing it.” On whether incumbents can look away: “I don’t think you can ignore it.”
Hyperliquid has pulled early-adopter market participants, traders who would ordinarily be in ICE and Nasdaq’s traditional markets, onto a blockchain venue. The weekend oil dynamic illustrated the stakes best. Sprecher noted that Hyperliquid has been trading crude oil perpetuals on weekends when ICE’s markets are dark, and it just so happens that the most significant price-moving events in the Iran conflict have occurred on weekends.
On institutional clients: “While most of our institutional clients are not trading on blockchain... they’re all watching it, and they’re watching the price discovery. Whether they admit it or not, it is being part of the zeitgeist.” On the SpaceX listing as a potential watershed: “I think regulators and market participants are going to say either it was irrelevant or it was highly relevant.” On what comes next: “We’re just going to have to get used to the interplay of retail and professional trading 24/7, 365.”
Praise from the highest level of TradFi. And markets liked it as well, with HYPE rebounding 10% overnight to $62.50
JPMorgan analysts published a research note on Thursday arguing that the “debasement trade” is losing momentum. For those unfamiliar, the debasement trade concept was to buy Bitcoin and gold as hedges against inflation, geopolitical instability, and currency weakness.
Now we have simultaneous outflows from both Bitcoin and gold ETFs over the past two weeks, alongside weakening institutional positions in CME futures for both assets. JPMorgan said the recent pullback may reflect growing expectations that tensions between the United States and Iran could ease, suggesting investors may be positioning ahead of a possible diplomatic agreement.
Effectively, they’re saying geopolitical tension is going away and thus there’s less need of a hedge. The problem with that, at least from Bitcoin holders POV, is that Bitcoin didn’t perform all that well as a debasement hedge even through the Iran conflict. Stocks outperformed broadly, as did gold.
The real test of the debasement thesis will play out over the years to come as inflation continues to impact the US and global economy - the primary driver of the thesis, much moreso than geopolitical hedge. Inflation isn’t going anywhere. We will see if BTC does…
Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick published a note arguing that Ethereum’s current price doesn’t reflect its network’s improving metrics, and comparing ETH’s current situation directly to Amazon following the dot-com bubble burst.
Bezos famously said during that period: “The stock is not the company. And the company is not the stock.” Amazon’s stock, adjusted for splits, has risen roughly 1,000-fold since its post-dotcom lows. Kendrick’s argument is that the same disconnect exists now for ETH.
Standard Chartered maintained its year-end price target of $4,000 for Ethereum and $40,000 by the end of the decade. The fundamental bull case he laid out is DeFi and stablecoin dominance: 54% of all stablecoins are currently on Ethereum, and stablecoins account for around one-third of all Ethereum transactions in 2026 year-to-date, as well as 60% of gross TVL on the network. The bank forecasts the stablecoin market cap to 7x to $2T by 2028 and RWAs to 50x to $2 trillion by 2028. Ethereum would be the primary beneficiary in this thesis, thus that growth is expected to drive Ethereum transaction volume and TVL to new highs, supporting higher ETH prices.
Meanwhile, Polymarket bettors give just a 15% chance of ETH to hit $4,000 in 2026. So there’s a 6x on the table if you think Standard Chartered is right…
Anthropic raised $65 billion in a Series H funding round at a $965 billion post-money valuation, becoming the most valuable AI company in Silicon Valley for the first time. The round was led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia Capital, each putting in more than $2 billion.
With the latest round, Anthropic has more than doubled its valuation since February, jumping from $380 billion to $965 billion.
Anthropic’s revenue has exploded thanks to its popular AI coding assistant, Claude Code. Annualized revenue has surpassed $47 billion, up from a $30 billion run rate earlier this year and $10 billion in annual revenue last year. The company also highlighted strategic infrastructure relationships with Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, and recently expanded its computing footprint through agreements with Amazon, Google, Broadcom, and SpaceX. Anthropic simultaneously released Claude Opus 4.8 today.
This could be the AI startup’s last private fundraising before debuting on the public markets. Now the race is on to see which AI giant, Anthropic or OpenAI, will IPO first. Get your liquidity ready now…
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