{"id":67717,"date":"2018-07-13T11:00:14","date_gmt":"2018-07-13T18:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=67717"},"modified":"2019-11-07T02:55:43","modified_gmt":"2019-11-07T02:55:43","slug":"finance-professor-predicts-bitcoin-will-emerge-as-digital-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/finance-professor-predicts-bitcoin-will-emerge-as-digital-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"Finance Professor Predicts Bitcoin Will Emerge as Digital Gold"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As crypto prices rise and fall, experts and casual observers alike are trying to predict the future of the digital economy. In addition to the media\u2019s perpetual fascination with the prospect of a <a href=\"http:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/coins\/bitcoin\">Bitcoin<\/a> bubble, message boards and Reddit threads are packed with similar conversations about the efficacy and sustainability of digital currencies.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Now, academics are beginning to weigh in as well.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>This week, Noah Smith, an assistant professor of finance at Stony Brook University and an op-ed contributor at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/view\/articles\/2018-07-11\/bitcoin-looks-more-like-gold-than-a-currency\">Bloomberg<\/a>, crafted a compelling forecast for Bitcoin\u2019s future. Mr. Smith presents three possible outcomes for Bitcoin\u2019s adoption and proliferation.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Bitcoin Triumph<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li>Bitcoin as Gold<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li>Bitcoin Bust<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>To be sure, each scenario has its share of supporters, but, after analyzing the exchange rate of Bitcoin and the dollar\u2019s inflation rate, Mr. Smith concluded that Bitcoin as Gold is the most likely scenario for the digital currency. He opined, \u201cI have long believed in the middle scenario.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin As Digital Gold<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>His argument is simple.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>First, like gold, Bitcoin is a finite resource. Only 21 million Bitcoin will ever be produced, so it\u2019s a deflationary asset that benefits from relative scarcity. Moreover, Bitcoin is an asset with a high expected return, and these assets tend to be more volatile.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>For example, gold experiences cycles and booms and busts \u2013 the last of which took place in 2013. As <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/SB10001424127887324030704578424123590556556\">The Wall Street Journal<\/a> reported at the time,<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cGold prices have declined by more than $203 an ounce, a record skid since the futures began trading in the U.S. in 1974.\u201d<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Likewise, Bitcoin is well-known for its wild, and certainly more frequent, price swings. These fluctuations, ominously dubbed \u201cflash crashes,\u201d occur on both a micro and a macro scale. In December, <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/crypto-markets-experience-major-pullback-monstrous-2017-growth\/\">Bitcoin\u2019s price suddenly dropped<\/a> 25% before a price correction occurred just a hours later. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is marred in a prolonged slump that\u2019s seen its value fall by nearly 2\/3 from its December 2017 high.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_66840\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-66840\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-66840\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/therace-btc-social-300x158.jpg\" alt=\"The Race for a Bitcoin ETF: The Winklevoss Brothers\u2019 Effort\" width=\"300\" height=\"158\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-66840\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Related:\u00a0<a title=\"The Race for a Bitcoin ETF: The Winklevoss Brothers\u2019 Effort\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/the-race-for-a-bitcoin-etf-the-winklevoss-brothers-effort\/\">The Race for a Bitcoin ETF: The Winklevoss Brothers\u2019 Effort<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>However, Mr. Smith contends, Bitcoin is unlikely to go away.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Most importantly, Bitcoin is becoming increasingly integrated into the financial system. <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-futures-posting-new-highs-in-daily-volume\/\">Bitcoin futures<\/a> are already available at CME, Cboe, and Goldman Sachs, and rumors of an impending <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/the-race-for-a-bitcoin-etf-the-winklevoss-brothers-effort\/\">Bitcoin ETF are picking up steam.<\/a> Therefore, Mr. Smith writes,<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;So my prediction is that Bitcoin will stick around, experiencing repeated bubbles and busts, but slowly gaining in value. That is why I personally still own some Bitcoin.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Despite his confidence in the digital currency, Mr. Smith is quick to point out his reservations about his outlook.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Results Are Inconclusive<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Despite its similarities to gold, Mr. Smith contends that Bitcoin could still be a bust. Based primarily on the work of University of Chicago Booth School of Business economist, Eric Budish, Mr. Smith notes that a lack of established trust and the possibility for malfeasance by malicious actors as a potential downfall of the digital currency.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Mr. Budish\u2019s academic paper, \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w24717\">The Economic Limits of Bitcoin and the Blockchain<\/a>,\u201d notes that Bitcoin will need to become significantly more valuable than to become a viable, secure financial asset in the future.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Of course, While Mr. Smith\u2019s outlook is supported by compelling evidence as the future of digital currencies remains uncertain. It\u2019s still a relatively new technology, and its fate is still in progress.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As crypto prices rise and fall, experts and casual observers alike are trying to predict the future of the digital economy. In addition to the media\u2019s perpetual fascination with the prospect of a Bitcoin bubble, message boards and Reddit threads are packed with similar conversations about the efficacy and sustainability of digital currencies.\u00a0 Now, academics [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35908,35,120],"tags":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Finance Professor Predicts Bitcoin Will Emerge as Digital Gold<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/finance-professor-predicts-bitcoin-will-emerge-as-digital-gold\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Finance Professor Predicts Bitcoin Will Emerge as Digital Gold\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As crypto prices rise and fall, experts and casual observers alike are trying to predict the future of the digital economy. In addition to the media\u2019s perpetual fascination with the prospect of a Bitcoin bubble, message boards and Reddit threads are packed with similar conversations about the efficacy and sustainability of digital currencies.\u00a0 Now, academics [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/finance-professor-predicts-bitcoin-will-emerge-as-digital-gold\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"CryptoSlate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-07-13T18:00:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-11-07T02:55:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/cryptoslate-cover.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Bill DeLisle\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Finance Professor Predicts Bitcoin Will Emerge as Digital Gold\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cryptoslate\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cryptoslate\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Bill DeLisle\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/finance-professor-predicts-bitcoin-will-emerge-as-digital-gold\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/finance-professor-predicts-bitcoin-will-emerge-as-digital-gold\/\"},\"author\":{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/bill-delisle\/#person\",\"name\":\"Bill DeLisle\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/bill-delisle\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/bill-delisle\/\"},\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/bill-delisle\/#authorimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/cs-bill-d.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/cs-bill-d.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Bill DeLisle\"},\"description\":\"Bill is a writer who frequently covers cryptocurrency and the fintech movement. 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