{"id":561079,"date":"2026-09-08T23:20:14","date_gmt":"2026-09-08T22:20:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=561079"},"modified":"2026-09-09T16:27:52","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T15:27:52","slug":"why-bitcoin-bulls-shouldnt-mistake-a-shrinking-dollar-reserve-share-for-central-bank-buying","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/why-bitcoin-bulls-shouldnt-mistake-a-shrinking-dollar-reserve-share-for-central-bank-buying\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Bitcoin bulls shouldn’t mistake a shrinking dollar reserve share for central bank buying"},"content":{"rendered":"

A Sept. 2, 2026 analysis by New York Fed researchers shows how a few large reserve portfolios can lower the global dollar share without a broad retreat from dollars. For investors assessing future sovereign demand for Bitcoin, the distinction is between a changing average and an investment decision.<\/p>\n

Linda S. Goldberg, Oliver Hannaoui and Sneha Parthasarathy report that the dollar share of global official foreign-exchange reserves<\/a> fell from 64% at year-end 2015 to 56% at year-end 2025, using IMF COFER data.<\/p>\n

Their country-level evidence points to concentrated decisions and changes in reserve sizes.<\/p>\n

Countries can change the currency mix of their portfolios, the \u201cpreferences\u201d channel. Alternatively, their total reserves can grow or shrink, changing their weight in the global average.<\/p>\n

When a country with a below-average dollar allocation accumulates reserves, it can pull down the worldwide dollar share without cutting its own allocation. Switzerland did that between 2015 and 2019: its reserve growth pushed the aggregate share down even as its own dollar allocation rose.<\/p>\n

For that period, 76 countries had complete endpoint data within a 79-country exercise. Their preferences and reserve-size contributions declined by 1.2 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively.<\/p>\n

For 2019-2023, the 62 countries with complete data<\/a> contributed a positive 0.3 percentage point through preferences and a negative 0.5 percentage point through reserve-size changes.<\/p>\n

China, Russia, Mexico and Morocco lacked 2023 dollar-allocation data. Under assumptions matching the observed 2.3-percentage-point global decline, the researchers inferred a combined negative 2.0-percentage-point preferences contribution for that group.<\/p>\n

\"2019\u20132023<\/a>
Infographic shows 2023 dollar-reserve data missing four countries and explains that reserve-share statistics do not establish sovereign Bitcoin purchases.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

A Bitcoin allocation needs its own evidence<\/h2>\n

The underlying Staff Report 1087<\/a>, issued in March 2024 and revised in February 2026, separates reserves needed for liquidity from an investment portion above those needs. Trade payments, foreign-currency debt, and currency stabilization sustain the need for liquid reserves.<\/p>\n

The paper models that investment portion<\/a> using short-term external debt or three months of imports as alternative measures of liquidity needs.<\/p>\n

Diversification is more prevalent when reserves can satisfy those needs. Its earlier decomposition covers 2015-2020, while its broader country panel spans 1999\u20132023.<\/p>\n\n

\n \n
\n Related Reading<\/span>\n

Arthur Hayes calls EUR\/JPY prices crypto\u2019s smoke alarm, but the Fed\u2019s plumbing still shows no fire<\/h3>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/i>\n <\/span>\n <\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n

The distinction also applies when a central bank actually buys Bitcoin<\/a>. On Nov. 13, 2025, the Czech National Bank announced<\/a> a $1 million digital-asset test portfolio including Bitcoin, with a dollar stablecoin and tokenized deposit also part of the project.<\/p>\n

The amount covered the whole portfolio, and the purchase was explicitly outside international reserves.<\/p>\n

Applied to Bitcoin, the reserve research supports a limited inference: diversification beyond liquidity needs does not identify the money's destination. Neither New York Fed source measures sovereign Bitcoin purchases or estimates a Bitcoin price effect.<\/p>\n

A sovereign Bitcoin demand case needs separate evidence: a disclosed allocation, its funding source, and executed purchases, with official reserves distinguished from holdings outside them. A shrinking dollar share supplies none of those details.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The New York Fed\u2019s Sept. 2 analysis separates currency choices from reserve-size changes, leaving sovereign Bitcoin demand unproven.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1264,"featured_media":561345,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120,76747,77968,77921],"tags":[81073,76769,80005,77433,75695],"prediction_market_topic":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy Bitcoin bulls shouldn't mistake a shrinking dollar reserve share for central bank buying<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The New York Fed\u2019s Sept. 2 analysis separates currency choices from reserve-size changes, leaving sovereign Bitcoin demand unproven.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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