{"id":546817,"date":"2026-07-09T11:51:44","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T10:51:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=546817"},"modified":"2026-07-09T11:53:51","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T10:53:51","slug":"bitcoins-bottom-needs-long-term-holders-to-stop-losing-280m-a-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoins-bottom-needs-long-term-holders-to-stop-losing-280m-a-day\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s bottom needs long-term holders to stop losing $280M a day"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin's climb from $58,300 to $64,400, then back to $62,700, over the past week is a bounce that still leaves the price below two important levels tracked by Glassnode: the True Market Mean near $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis near $72,200.<\/p>\n

The firm places Bitcoin in the later stages of a bottoming process, which it frames as ongoing.<\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its June meeting on July 8, showing that all participants supported holding the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%<\/a>, and the committee removed language from prior statements that had signaled a bias toward easing.<\/p>\n

Glassnode's on-chain data indicate a market working through the kind of exhaustion that typically precedes a bottom, and the Fed's language suggests a policy environment still weighing whether inflation requires a firmer response.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin's
A chart shows Bitcoin at $64,400, up from a $58,300 low but still below the $72,200 short-term cost basis and $76,600 True Market Mean.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Long-term holders are the signal to watch<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin trading below the True Market Mean matters because Glassnode treats that level as a cycle-wide cost-basis anchor. A sustained reclaim would point to broader repair than the current bounce has delivered.<\/p>\n

Glassnode's framing<\/a> points to long-term holder loss realization, the pace at which holders who bought Bitcoin more than 155 days ago are selling at a loss.<\/p>\n

That metric now accounts for 43% of total realized value on the network, up from 15% in early February, and recently peaked at nearly $280 million per day, the highest level since December 2022.<\/p>\n

Glassnode<\/a> says the current wave of long-term holder capitulation continues, and the market needs a meaningful compression in that number before it can credibly transition back toward bull market conditions.<\/p>\n

Spot Bitcoin ETF net flows have improved from a low near $193 million per day in early June to a 30-day average near $88.9 million per day now, a real recovery that still leaves the market in a net-outflow regime<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Trading volume is running at a 30-day average of about $650 million to $950 million per day, far below the October 2025 peak near $4.4 billion.<\/p>\n

A return to that peak would require roughly $3.45 billion to $3.75 billion per day in additional ETF turnover, a scale of activity current flows are nowhere close to producing.<\/p>\n

The options market's open-interest put\/call ratio fell to 0.56, the lowest reading of 2026, while perpetual futures funding sits well below the 0.01% level Glassnode uses as a neutral benchmark, with both readings less bearish than the spot and ETF data.<\/p>\n

The same options market<\/a> still prices real downside protection, with a 25-delta skew that stays bid across maturities, meaning traders are paying up for puts relative to calls at every time frame Glassnode tracks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Signal<\/th>\nCurrent reading<\/th>\nWhat it means<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Long-term holder losses<\/td>\n~$280M\/day peak<\/td>\nCapitulation remains elevated<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LTH losses as share of realized value<\/td>\n43%<\/td>\nLong-term holders are driving a large share of realized stress<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ETF netflows<\/td>\n~-$88.9M\/day 30-day average<\/td>\nOutflows have eased but remain negative<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ETF trading volume<\/td>\n$650M\u2013$950M\/day<\/td>\nInstitutional activity remains far below peak<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ETF volume gap vs Oct. 2025 peak<\/td>\n~$3.45B\u2013$3.75B\/day<\/td>\nReturn to peak demand would require a major volume recovery<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Options put\/call ratio<\/td>\n0.56<\/td>\nLess bearish positioning than spot\/ETF data imply<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Perpetual funding<\/td>\nBelow 0.01% neutral level<\/td>\nLeverage demand remains muted<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
25-delta skew<\/td>\nPuts bid across maturities<\/td>\nTraders still pay for downside protection<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

What the Fed minutes said and what Bitcoin needs<\/h2>\n

The minutes<\/a> describe participants seeing inflation running higher and staying well above the Fed's 2% objective, pointing to tariffs, supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, and AI-related demand as drivers, with many participants saying elevated commodity prices and supply disruptions could persist longer than officials had expected.<\/p>\n

Most participants described a scenario where inflation pressures ease enough to hold rates steady or eventually cut them. They also discussed a second scenario in which inflation remains elevated due to AI demand, the Middle East conflict, or tariffs, and said that in that case, policy firming would be warranted.<\/p>\n

In the case where investors' capitulation cools first, long-term holder losses compress sharply toward $100 million to $150 million a day, ETF flows turn neutral to positive with volume climbing back above $1 billion a day, and incoming inflation data softens enough to take the Fed's policy-firming scenario off the table.<\/p>\n

Under that path, Bitcoin reclaims the short-term holder cost basis first, then works toward testing the True Market Mean itself.<\/p>\n

In the case where the macro<\/a> backdrop keeps sellers active, long-term holder losses\u00a0remain near or above $250 million per day,\u00a0ETF<\/a> net flows remain negative, and Fed rhetoric keeps policy-firming\u00a0risk alive through the next inflation prints.<\/p>\n

Along that path, Bitcoin remains structurally vulnerable and could retest the lower end of its bear-market range near its realized price<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Using absolute values to frame market stress, Glassnode\u2019s two pressure points, long-term holder losses near $280 million a day and ETF net outflows near $88.9 million a day, put the combined stress reading near $369 million a day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Condition<\/th>\nBull path<\/th>\nBear path<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Long-term holder losses<\/td>\nCompress toward $100M\u2013$150M\/day<\/td>\nStay near or above $250M\/day<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ETF netflows<\/td>\nTurn neutral to positive<\/td>\nRemain negative<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ETF trading volume<\/td>\nRises above $1B\/day and keeps climbing<\/td>\nStays below $1B\/day<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fed backdrop<\/td>\nInflation softens; policy-firming risk fades<\/td>\nInflation risks keep firming scenario alive<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
First technical\/on-chain reclaim<\/td>\nShort-term holder cost basis near $72.2K<\/td>\nPrice remains below recent-buyer breakeven<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Larger confirmation level<\/td>\nTrue Market Mean near $76.6K<\/td>\nLower bear-market range remains in play<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Article takeaway<\/td>\nBottoming process starts confirming<\/td>\nBottoming process stretches out<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Bitcoin's bottoming process would start to look more credible if three conditions develop together: long-term holder losses compress, ETF outflows approach neutrality, and institutional volume climbs back toward the level it reached in October 2025.<\/p>\n

The Fed's June minutes gave the market fewer reasons to expect an easy path.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin’s climb from $58,300 to $64,400, then back to $62,700, over the past week is a bounce that still leaves the price below two important levels tracked by Glassnode: the True Market Mean near $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis near $72,200. The firm places Bitcoin in the later stages of a bottoming process, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1511,"featured_media":546847,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120,77968,77911,79312],"tags":[],"prediction_market_topic":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin\u2019s bottom needs long-term holders to stop losing $280M a day<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin needs long-term holder capitulation to confirm a bottom as Fed minutes reduce pressure on exhausted sellers.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoins-bottom-needs-long-term-holders-to-stop-losing-280m-a-day\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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