{"id":524866,"date":"2026-03-18T12:01:45","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T12:01:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=524866"},"modified":"2026-03-18T12:14:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T12:14:54","slug":"fed-decision-tonight-will-likely-decide-whether-bitcoin-gets-past-80k","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/fed-decision-tonight-will-likely-decide-whether-bitcoin-gets-past-80k\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed decision tonight will likely decide whether Bitcoin gets past $80k or fall further"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin has mostly traded around $74,000 on Wednesday as investors waited for the Federal Reserve's policy decision. However, as of press time, Bitcoin has just lost the $73,500 support, with a route to $72,000 now in sight.<\/p>\n

The meeting is expected to leave the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% while updating projections for inflation, growth, and unemployment after the Middle East conflict pushed energy prices higher.<\/p>\n

The policy rate itself has drawn less attention than the Fed's quarterly projections and Chair Jerome Powell's<\/a> press conference. Andre Dragosch, Bitwise Europe's head of research, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n

“Markets price in no change by the Fed today. Focus will most likely be on forward guidance \/ SEP = `dot plot' and comments about geopolitical risks & energy today.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Notably, President Donald Trump<\/a> has pressed Powell to cut borrowing costs immediately, yet investors have moved in the other direction as oil surged and the inflation outlook worsened.<\/p>\n

According to Reuters, futures markets now imply one quarter-point rate cut this year, in September, and another in late 2027, a path that is far tighter than the White House has advocated.<\/p>\n

For crypto traders, that has turned Wednesday's meeting into a test of whether Bitcoin can extend a recovery that has carried it back into the mid-$70,000s, or whether a firmer Fed message will keep the market pinned below the next major options and psychological threshold near $80,000.<\/p>\n

The setup has become more sensitive because the central bank is dealing with a fresh energy shock at the same time that labor indicators have weakened and a leadership transition is approaching in Washington.<\/p>\n\n

\n \n
\n \"Bitcoin\n <\/div>\n
\n Related Reading<\/span>\n

Bitcoin price faces a crucial weekend test as US growth collapses to 0.7% while inflation stays stubborn<\/h3>\n

The data looked shaky even before the oil shock, and Powell now has to explain what breaks first.<\/p>\n

\n Mar 14, 2026<\/span>\n ·<\/span>\n Gino Matos<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n

Oil shock reshapes the rate outlook<\/h2>\n

The Fed entered this meeting with the economy already losing momentum<\/a> before the conflict added another inflation channel.<\/a><\/p>\n

US gasoline prices averaged $3.79 a gallon as of Tuesday, more than 25% above where they stood before the war began.<\/p>\n

Due to this, economists such as KPMG's Diane Swonk expect<\/a> policymakers to mark up their inflation and unemployment forecasts and reduce their growth outlook, reflecting a policy backdrop that has shifted from a relatively orderly easing debate to a broader dispute over how much inflation risk the Fed can absorb.<\/p>\n

Recent US data support that tension. The Commerce Department reported core PCE inflation at 3.1% year over year in January, the highest reading since March 2024, while fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 0.7%.<\/p>\n

The labor picture also softened, with the nonfarm payrolls falling by 92,000 in February<\/a> and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%.<\/p>\n

Those figures leave the Fed balancing a jobs market that has lost momentum against an inflation trend that remains above target before any full pass-through from higher energy costs.<\/p>\n

That mix is central to Bitcoin's current macro narrative. Through much of the past two years, the flagship digital asset has often traded as a proxy for easier financial conditions, lower real yields, and expanding liquidity.<\/p>\n

Wednesday's meeting carries a different set of inputs. A Fed that raises inflation forecasts, keeps the median path restrictive, and signals caution on cuts would reduce the case for a rapid expansion in risk appetite, even if digital assets have held firmer than some equity benchmarks during the latest geopolitical shock.<\/p>\n\n

\n \n
\n \"The\n <\/div>\n
\n Related Reading<\/span>\n

The latest US inflation report looked like good news, but the Fed may already have a bigger problem<\/h3>\n

February CPI looked reassuring on paper, but it may end up being the last calm snapshot before a new inflation scare.<\/p>\n

\n Mar 14, 2026<\/span>\n ·<\/span>\n Andjela Radmilac<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n

Powell's term adds a second clock for markets<\/h2>\n

A second timeline is also in play. Powell's current term as chair ends on May 15, 2026, though his term as a member of the Board of Governors runs until Jan. 31, 2028, according to the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n

That distinction has become important for investors trying to map policy beyond Wednesday's decision. A chair transition that once looked straightforward has become less certain as Trump's nominee, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh<\/a>, remains stuck in the Senate.<\/p>\n

Warsh's nomination<\/a> remains on hold while the legal fight around the Justice Department's investigation of Powell<\/a> continues. So, if Warsh is not confirmed by the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, Powell would continue leading rate-setting meetings even after his chair term ends.<\/p>\n

That possibility extends the window during which markets may still be trading Powell's policy framework, even as Trump continues to signal his preference for lower rates and a different leadership style at the Fed.<\/p>\n

For Bitcoin, this adds a second layer of interpretation to the Fed meeting. Investors would be reading Wednesday's projections for clues about 2026, and they would also be weighing how much of the medium-term path could change once the leadership question is settled.<\/p>\n

That does not guarantee a cleaner policy path for crypto or broader risk assets. A delayed transition, Senate friction, and continuing legal disputes around Powell all add uncertainty to the schedule that investors had expected to guide the second half of the year.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin's rebound meets a policy test<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin has recovered from the sharp slide that took it under $60,000 earlier this quarter, yet the market is still trading far below the record levels seen late last year.<\/p>\n

Citigroup cut its 12-month Bitcoin target to $112,000<\/a> from $143,000, citing stalled progress on US crypto legislation and a narrower window for regulatory catalysts that could support ETF demand and broader institutional adoption.<\/p>\n

In the same note, Citi described $70,000 as an important level for BTC as the market awaits policy and legislative direction.<\/p>\n

However, industry experts believe BTC could aim higher given the current corporate accumulation, which remains part of the support structure. Crypto market maker Wintermute said:<\/p>\n

“The setup is more constructive than it has been in months. The Coinbase premium reset, ETF inflows, and institutional desk flows all point in the same direction. The mid-$60s appears to have attracted a real floor of institutional bids.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

For context, Bitcoin ETFs<\/a> are currently on their strongest inflow streak since last October, with seven days of consecutive positive cash additions totaling $1.1 billion.<\/p>\n

At the same time, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues\u00a0to a<\/a>dd to its BTC holdings aggressively<\/a>.<\/a> The firm has acquired more than 40,000 BTC this month, lifting its holdings to 761,068 Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

These purchases show that the market's largest corporate buyers are still adding exposure at prices close to where Bitcoin trades now, even with rate uncertainty unresolved.<\/p>\n

That steady demand has helped build a base of buyers beyond short-term macro traders and exchange-driven momentum accounts.<\/p>\n\n

\n \n
\n \"Citi\n <\/div>\n
\n Related Reading<\/span>\n

Citi slashes Bitcoin target by $31,000 despite rising prices as Washington delays stall crypto breakout<\/h3>\n

Citi still sees upside for Bitcoin and Ethereum, but slower US policy is shrinking how far prices can run this year.<\/p>\n

\n Mar 17, 2026<\/span>\n ·<\/span>\n Liam 'Akiba' Wright<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n

Considering this, the next technical and derivatives reference point sits near $80,000. CME Group said<\/a> in a March 6 market note that the $80,000 call strike carried high open interest, making it a focal level for market participants.<\/p>\n

That shows where traders have concentrated exposure as Bitcoin attempts to stabilize after a deep first-quarter drawdown. A move toward that level after the Fed decision would likely pull more attention from options desks and short-term hedgers, especially if Powell leaves the door open for easing later this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin has mostly traded around $74,000 on Wednesday as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. However, as of press time, Bitcoin has just lost the $73,500 support, with a route to $72,000 now in sight. The meeting is expected to leave the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% while updating projections […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":720,"featured_media":524909,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[77968,77911,79312,79849,6849],"tags":[81073,77533],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFed decision tonight will likely decide whether Bitcoin gets past $80k or fall further<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As mixed signals from the Fed loom over Bitcoin, the crypto market sees robust institutional buying and ETF inflows.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/fed-decision-tonight-will-likely-decide-whether-bitcoin-gets-past-80k\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" 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