{"id":521341,"date":"2026-02-28T11:35:54","date_gmt":"2026-02-28T11:35:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=521341"},"modified":"2026-02-28T13:27:04","modified_gmt":"2026-02-28T13:27:04","slug":"new-bitcoin-cycle-data-projects-btc-will-lose-half-its-value-before-december","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/new-bitcoin-cycle-data-projects-btc-will-lose-half-its-value-before-december\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin price projected to bottom at $35,000 in December by model that timed the last two market tops"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since it's pretty clear we've now seen this cycle's bull market high, I've created an updated halving-cycle model<\/a> built on four Bitcoin cycles.<\/p>\n

The model projects a cycle low near $35,000 in December 2026 after a 72.5% drawdown from a $126,219 cycle high.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Inside the halving-cycle framework<\/h2>\n

My last model correctly marked both the 2021 and 2025 top timeframes. The new framework, \u201cAkiba Cycle Model v2<\/strong>,\u201d combines a 50,000-run Monte Carlo simulation with walk-forward validation and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV).<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin halving cycle price movements<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It breaks the cycle into three linked components: drawdown from a bull-market high to the subsequent cycle low, the number of days from a halving to that low, and the recovery multiple from the low into the next halving.<\/p>\n

The drawdown and timing components produced smaller historical errors than the recovery leg. That recovery leg drove the largest miss in its out-of-sample test.<\/p>\n

The model starts from an empirical pattern in prior cycles in which peak-to-trough drawdowns have eased each era while still remaining deep.<\/p>\n

Historical drawdowns from the bull high to the cycle low were 94.1% in the first cycle, 88.2% in the second, 83.7% in the third, and 77.6% in the fourth, based on the cycle taxonomy used in the accompanying chart.<\/p>\n

The fitted projection for the fifth cycle centers on a 72.5% drawdown, with a simulated band from 71.9\u201373.1%.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin cycle model projections and cycle drawdowns<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

That drawdown distribution is tight because the monotone decay holds across all four observations. Its LOOCV root-mean-square error is 0.63 percentage points.<\/p>\n

Using the bull-market high of $126,219, the implied cycle-low price distribution clusters around the mid-$30,000s.<\/p>\n

The median simulated low is about $34,700, with a $33,900\u2013$35,500 P10\u2013P90 range.<\/p>\n

Timing points to late 2026<\/h2>\n

I also mapped how long it takes the market to reach the cycle low after a halving.<\/p>\n

The days from halving to cycle low stepped from 778 days in cycle 1 to 784 days in cycle 2, then to 890 days in cycle 3 and 923 days in cycle 4.<\/p>\n

The fifth-cycle estimate centers on 980 days after the April 2024 halving, which maps to December 2026. The P10\u2013P90 window spans November 2026 through January 2027.<\/p>\n

The LOOCV timing error is wider than drawdown, at 37 days. That reflects variance in the lengthening pattern, including the six-day increment between the first two cycles.<\/p>\n

A condensed view of the cycle history used in the model is below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Cycle<\/th>\nHalving date<\/th>\nHalving price<\/th>\nBull high<\/th>\nCycle low<\/th>\nLow vs. high<\/th>\nDays to high<\/th>\nDays to low<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
H1<\/td>\nNov 2012<\/td>\n$12.56<\/td>\n$31.91<\/td>\n$1.87<\/td>\n94.1%<\/td>\n613<\/td>\n778<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
H2<\/td>\nJul 2016<\/td>\n$650<\/td>\n$1,230<\/td>\n$146<\/td>\n88.2%<\/td>\n363<\/td>\n784<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
H3<\/td>\nMay 2020<\/td>\n$9,790<\/td>\n$19,172<\/td>\n$3,122<\/td>\n83.7%<\/td>\n522<\/td>\n890<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
H4<\/td>\nApr 2024<\/td>\n$65,000<\/td>\n$68,998<\/td>\n$15,474<\/td>\n77.6%<\/td>\n555<\/td>\n923<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
H5<\/td>\nLate Mar (est.)<\/td>\n?<\/td>\n$126,219<\/td>\n?<\/td>\n~72.5%<\/td>\n537<\/td>\n~980<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Recovery multiple drives the widest uncertainty<\/h2>\n

The recovery leg is the portion that the model treats as least stable. It estimates the multiple from a cycle low to the next halving price, a pathway that has compressed over time in the historical series.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin cycle recoveries and time from cycle low<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The low-to-next-halving multiples were 347.8x into H2, 67.2x into H3, and 20.8x into H4, with a central estimate near 5.0x into H5.<\/p>\n

Because that component has only three historical observations and failed its walk-forward test, the simulation uses a wide uncertainty band for the H5 halving price.<\/p>\n

Its P10\u2013P90 range runs from $60,000 to $489,000, with a median of $172,000.<\/p>\n

I built and ran the backtest myself to pressure-test the model across prior cycles, making clear where its assumptions tracked reality, and where they began to break down. The backtest is explicit about where the approach held up.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin cycle model backtesting<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Training on cycles 1 through 3 and predicting cycle 4, the model produced a 78.2% drawdown estimate, compared with an observed 77.6%, a 0.7 percentage-point gap.<\/p>\n

It also projected 929 days to the cycle low versus an observed 923 days, a six-day gap.<\/p>\n

In price terms, it projected a cycle low of $15,012 versus an observed $15,474, a 3% miss.<\/p>\n

The same exercise underpredicted the recovery multiple by 38% (13.0x predicted versus 20.8x observed). That miss then propagated into a larger error on the implied halving price.<\/p>\n

Those diagnostics shape how the outputs are presented.<\/p>\n

The model treats the cycle-low estimate as the primary forecastable variable and frames the next-halving price as scenario space.<\/p>\n

The Monte Carlo engine samples from an ensemble of simple functional forms (linear fits, exponential decay, and average-decrement variants), injects noise calibrated to LOOCV residuals, and uses jackknife resampling of the four-cycle dataset to stress sensitivity to any one era.<\/p>\n

It also clamps outputs to bounds defined in the notes. It then chains the drawdown, timing, and recovery draws to produce a joint distribution.<\/p>\n

A snapshot of the fifth-cycle distribution outputs is below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Output<\/th>\nP10<\/th>\nP25<\/th>\nP50<\/th>\nP75<\/th>\nP90<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Drawdown from bull high<\/td>\n71.9%<\/td>\n72.2%<\/td>\n72.5%<\/td>\n72.9%<\/td>\n73.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cycle low price<\/td>\n$34K<\/td>\n$34K<\/td>\n$35K<\/td>\n$35K<\/td>\n$35K<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Days from H4 to cycle low<\/td>\n952<\/td>\n965<\/td>\n980<\/td>\n996<\/td>\n1,011<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cycle-low window<\/td>\nNov 2026<\/td>\nDec 2026<\/td>\nDec 2026<\/td>\nJan 2027<\/td>\nJan 2027<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
H5 halving price<\/td>\n$60K<\/td>\n$98K<\/td>\n$172K<\/td>\n$298K<\/td>\n$489K<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin cycle history<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The notes also include two probability statements derived from the simulated distribution set: a 64.4% chance that the H5 halving price exceeds $126,219, and a 100% chance that the cycle low stays above $20,000 under the model\u2019s structural floor assumptions.<\/p>\n

Both claims are conditional on the model design, including its small-sample calibration and its independence assumption. That assumption treats drawdown, timing, and recovery as separable random draws even though they can co-move.<\/p>\n

The observations underpinning the cycle taxonomy help explain why the model focuses on drawdowns and elapsed time rather than peak returns.<\/p>\n

Peak gains relative to the prior halving price have compressed each era, moving from 10,375% in cycle 2 to about 2,900% in cycle 3 and 632% in cycle 4.<\/p>\n

In the notes, the current cycle\u2019s bull high is set at 103% over the prior halving price.<\/p>\n

At the same time, the halving-to-high interval lengthened from 363 days after the first halving to 522 days after the second and 555 days after the third.<\/p>\n

Under the chosen data points, the model places the fifth-cycle bull-market high at 537 days after the April 2024 halving.<\/p>\n

The model documentation lists several limitations that can change how these distributions should be read.<\/p>\n

It uses four cycles in total, so its tails can understate outcomes outside the historical range.<\/p>\n

It also does not account for regime variables such as ETF flow patterns, custody structure, or macro correlation inputs like rates and liquidity.<\/p>\n

The recovery module is flagged as the main source of uncertainty, since the walk-forward test showed that cycle-shape extrapolation did not capture the cycle 4 recovery multiple.<\/p>\n

For market participants who treat halving-era behavior as a repeatable template, the v2 framework formalizes two prior-cycle regularities: a drifting drawdown rate and a lengthening path to the cycle low.<\/p>\n

It leaves the next-halving price as a wide distribution rather than a point call.<\/p>\n

The model\u2019s median path places the next cycle low in the mid-$30,000s around December 2026. It leaves the halving-5 price as an outcome band anchored at $172,000 in the middle of a $60,000 to $489,000 range, with the caveat in the notes that it is not financial advice.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Since it’s pretty clear we’ve now seen this cycle’s bull market high, I’ve created an updated halving-cycle model built on four Bitcoin cycles. The model projects a cycle low near $35,000 in December 2026 after a 72.5% drawdown from a $126,219 cycle high. Inside the halving-cycle framework My last model correctly marked both the 2021 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1264,"featured_media":521257,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120,77873,61715,77968,79312,15323],"tags":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin price projected to bottom at $35,000 in December by model that timed the last two market tops<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin halving model flags a December 2026 low near $35,000 after a brutal 72.5% drop.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/new-bitcoin-cycle-data-projects-btc-will-lose-half-its-value-before-december\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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