{"id":517395,"date":"2026-01-30T10:37:48","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T10:37:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=517395"},"modified":"2026-01-30T10:38:38","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T10:38:38","slug":"bitcoin-fights-to-stave-off-fourth-straight-monthly-slide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-fights-to-stave-off-fourth-straight-monthly-slide\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin ready to record fourth straight red month and the $81,000 floor is suddenly everything"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin<\/a> is struggling to avoid a fourth consecutive monthly decline as the cryptocurrency market grapples with a fundamental shift in momentum that has left most investors underwater.<\/p>\n

Data from CryptoSlate<\/em> indicate that the largest digital asset declined by nearly 7% over the last 24 hours to $82,513.<\/p>\n

According to CoinGlass data, long traders speculating on the BTC price were liquidated for more than $750 million during the shock price collapse. This is the highest level of losses for this cohort of traders since last November.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price Liquidation in the Last 24 Hours (Source: CoinGlass)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Consequently, BTC is on course to suffer its fourth consecutive red month as the crypto asset has shed more than 5% of its value this January.<\/p>\n

This follows a 3.99% loss in December and a sharp 17% decline in November. BTC declined by 4% in October.<\/p>\n

BTC loses 2-year moving average<\/h2>\n

Meanwhile, the poor price performance this year has led the flagship digital asset to fall below its 2-year moving average for the first time since 2022.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin analyst Joe Consorti added<\/a>:<\/p>\n

“We've also lost the November 2025 lows, and are 7% away from losing the 2025 yearly low.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Data from Alphractal highlights the significance of this shift, noting that the last time BTC traded below this level was in October 2023.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin 2-Year Moving Average (Source: Alphractal)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This breakdown revives a simple yet historically powerful signal. For many analysts, the loss of the 2Y SMA signals the beginning of a genuine capitulation cycle.<\/p>\n

Historical data suggest that almost every time Bitcoin\u2019s price has fallen below this average, the market has experienced further downside or entered a prolonged accumulation phase that lays the groundwork for the next bull cycle.<\/p>\n

The October liquidation shock reset the cycle<\/h2>\n

The current regime dates back to Oct. 10, 2025,<\/a> when the crypto market experienced one of its largest forced unwinds on record.<\/p>\n

A surge of liquidations followed renewed tariff and export-control headlines from Washington, triggering rapid deleveraging across major venues and reducing market depth in the days that followed.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin had set an all-time high above $126,000 earlier that month, but the liquidation episode helped yank the market out of its prior structure<\/a> and reprice risk around macro headlines rather than internal crypto catalysts.<\/p>\n

The liquidation wave totaled more than $19 billion, underscoring how much of the cycle\u2019s upside had been financed by leverage rather than durable spot demand.<\/p>\n

That shift matters because the market never delivered the kind of fast, confidence-restoring rebound that typically signals a trend resumption.<\/p>\n

Instead, price action evolved into a grinding process of position reduction, with rebounds repeatedly stalling and reinforcing the sense that the market has moved from expansion into consolidation.<\/p>\n\n

\n \n
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Something broke for crypto in October, data shows how the market changed<\/h3>\n
Major exchanges are suffering from a "drought" in order book depth, creating a volatility trap where even modest selling triggers massive price swings.<\/div>\n
\n Dec 23, 2025<\/span>\n ·<\/span>\n Liam 'Akiba' Wright<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n

ETF flows stabilize, but the bid has not rebuilt<\/h2>\n

The most visible sign of the demand slowdown has been in US spot Bitcoin ETFs,<\/a> which helped power earlier accumulation waves but have recently shifted into a more neutral posture.<\/p>\n

Glassnode said<\/a> US spot Bitcoin ETF net flows have returned to equilibrium, with the 30-day moving average hovering near zero after a period of sustained outflows.<\/p>\n

The change suggests mechanical sell pressure has eased, but it also implies that the aggressive inflows that previously absorbed new supply have not returned.<\/p>\n

Glassnode also framed the market as pinned near cost-basis levels, which now serve as inflection points. The firm set the short-term holder cost basis<\/a> at approximately $96,500, a level that has repeatedly capped attempts to recover.<\/p>\n

Below the market, Glassnode highlighted a stressed support band around $83,400, with a \u201cTrue Market Mean\u201d near $80,700 if weakness deepens.<\/p>\n

Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson issued a stark warning regarding this specific zone, stating that Bitcoin “cannot lose $81,000 under any circumstances” based on on-chain analysis.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin Mean Price (Source: Alphractal)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Wedson cautioned that if this level breaks, a capitulation process similar to 2022 may unfold, with the next major support level significantly lower at approximately $65,500.<\/p>\n\n

\n \n
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Bitcoin's whipsaw to $105k wipes out $7B in leveraged positions<\/h3>\n
Massive sell-off causes over $7 billion in liquidations, exposing crypto's structural weaknesses during volatile trading.<\/div>\n
\n Oct 10, 2025<\/span>\n ·<\/span>\n Assad Jafri<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n

Metals surge, and Washington injects policy risk<\/h2>\n

Crypto\u2019s internal cooling has unfolded alongside a macro tape that has rewarded traditional havens.<\/p>\n

Gold and silver reached fresh records<\/a> in early 2026 as investors rotated into hard assets amid policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk, a shift that has sharpened the contrast with Bitcoin\u2019s sideways-to-lower grind.<\/a><\/p>\n

Washington has become part of the price action as well. Senators introduced a draft market-structure bill in mid-January<\/a> to clarify oversight and set guardrails for key products, including limits on interest-like rewards paid for holding stablecoins while still allowing activity-based incentives tied to usage.<\/p>\n

However, the near-term problem is that policy progress has been uneven.<\/p>\n

After the draft circulated, Coinbase\u2019s<\/a> chief executive, Brian Armstrong, said the company could not support the bill in its then-current form, delaying key Senate discussions and reinforcing investor caution regarding timelines.<\/p>\n

In light of this, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan<\/a> said the legislative outcome creates two distinct pathways for pricing.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Clarity passes \u2026 I suspect the market will rally sharply,\u201d he said<\/a>, arguing that a framework investors can underwrite would pull forward expectations around stablecoins and tokenization.<\/p>\n

However, Hougan said the market is more likely to demand proof of real-world adoption before it rewards prices if the legislation fails.<\/p>\n\n

\n \n
\n \"Bitcoin\n <\/div>\n
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Bitcoin is following a discreet lag pattern behind gold that puts a $130k target immediately in play<\/h3>\n
Bitcoin is destined to follow gold and silver's parabolic price arc but it must first absorb a final wave of legacy selling pressure.<\/div>\n
\n Jan 14, 2026<\/span>\n ·<\/span>\n Oluwapelumi Adejumo<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n

A leverage-driven market, with liquidity signals flashing caution<\/h2>\n

Even with subdued price action, some analysts argue the drawdown looks more like a cyclical reset than a structural breakdown.<\/p>\n

Glassnode described a consolidation regime driven more by absorption than by expansion, with leverage already unwound in some markets and spot participation still muted.<\/p>\n

That framing aligns with the broader idea that recent lows have often been produced by leveraged positions being forced out, rather than by a clean collapse in long-term conviction.<\/p>\n

Still, near-term liquidity gauges remain uncomfortable.<\/p>\n

One widely watched indicator, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index<\/a>, has remained negative for an extended period in January, at around -0.16% in recent readings, indicating that US spot pricing is weaker than the global average.<\/p>\n

\"Coinbase
Coinbase Premium Index (Source: CryptoQuant)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n
\n \n
\n \"Panic\n <\/div>\n
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Panic selling Bitcoin on Coinbase triggers a Binance price gap that reveals a “messy” institutional market failure<\/h3>\n
The index compares BTC\/USD vs BTC\/USDT, so USDT parity, funding, and offshore leverage can mechanically deepen discounts.<\/div>\n
\n Jan 27, 2026<\/span>\n ·<\/span>\n Gino Matos<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n

At the same time, the market\u2019s pool of \u201cdry powder\u201d has shown signs of shrinking.<\/p>\n

Data<\/a> from CryptoQuant indicate a contraction in aggregate stablecoin supply<\/a>, a dynamic that traders monitor because stablecoin growth tends to correlate with incremental buying capacity within the crypto ecosystem.<\/p>\n

Put together, the setup leaves the market with two clean paths that traders are already mapping.<\/p>\n