{"id":507503,"date":"2025-11-18T23:00:48","date_gmt":"2025-11-18T23:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=507503"},"modified":"2025-12-17T02:32:15","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T02:32:15","slug":"why-adam-backs-thinks-bitcoins-20-year-quantum-runway-matters-more-than-todays-headlines","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/why-adam-backs-thinks-bitcoins-20-year-quantum-runway-matters-more-than-todays-headlines\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Adam Backs thinks Bitcoin’s 20-year quantum runway matters more than today’s headlines"},"content":{"rendered":"

For years, quantum computing has served as cryptocurrency's favorite doomsday scenario, a distant but existential threat that periodically resurfaces whenever a lab announces a qubit milestone.<\/p>\n

The narrative follows a predictable arc where researchers achieve some incremental breakthrough, social media erupts with “Bitcoin is dead” predictions, and the news cycle moves on.<\/p>\n

But Adam Back's<\/a> November 15 remarks on X<\/a> cut through that noise with something the discourse desperately lacks: a timeline grounded in physics rather than panic.<\/p>\n

Back, the Blockstream<\/a> CEO, whose Hashcash proof-of-work system predates Bitcoin itself, responded<\/a> to a question about accelerating quantum research with a blunt assessment.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin faces “probably not” any vulnerability to a cryptographically relevant quantum computer<\/a> for roughly 20 to 40 years.<\/p>\n

More importantly, he stressed that Bitcoin<\/a> doesn't have to wait passively for that day.<\/p>\n

NIST has already standardized quantum-secure signature schemes, such as SLH-DSA, and Bitcoin can adopt these tools through soft-fork upgrades long before any quantum machine poses a genuine threat.<\/p>\n

His comment reframes quantum risk from an unsolvable catastrophe into a solvable engineering problem with a multi-decade runway.<\/p>\n

That distinction matters because Bitcoin's actual vulnerability isn't where most people think, as the threat doesn't come from SHA-256, the hash function that secures the mining process. It comes from ECDSA and Schnorr signatures on the secp256k1 elliptic curve, the cryptography that proves ownership.<\/p>\n

A quantum computer running Shor's algorithm could solve the discrete logarithm problem on secp256k1, deriving a private key from a public key and invalidating the entire ownership model.<\/p>\n

In pure mathematics, Shor's algorithm renders elliptic curve cryptography obsolete.<\/p>\n

The engineering gap between theory and reality<\/h2>\n

But mathematics and engineering exist in different universes. Breaking a 256-bit elliptic curve requires somewhere between 1,600 and 2,500 logical, error-corrected qubits.<\/p>\n

Each logical qubit demands thousands of physical qubits to maintain coherence and correct errors.<\/p>\n

One analysis, based on the work of Martin Roetteler and four other researchers, calculates<\/a> that breaking a 256-bit EC key within the narrow time window relevant to a Bitcoin transaction would require approximately 2,900 logical qubits.<\/p>\n

It is essential to consider where quantum hardware actually stands. Caltech's neutral-atom system operates around 6,100 physical qubits, but these are noisy and lack error correction.<\/p>\n

More mature gate-based systems from Quantinuum and IBM<\/a> operate in the tens to low hundreds of logical-quality qubits.<\/p>\n

The gap between current capability and cryptographic relevance spans several orders of magnitude, not a small incremental step, but a chasm that requires fundamental breakthroughs in qubit quality, error correction, and scalability.<\/p>\n

NIST's own post-quantum cryptography explainer states this plainly: no cryptographically relevant quantum computer exists today, and expert estimates for its arrival vary so widely that some specialists think “less than 10 years” remains a possibility. In contrast, others place it firmly past 2040.<\/p>\n

The median view clusters around the mid-to-late 2030s, making Back's 20-to-40-year window conservative rather than reckless.<\/p>\n

The migration roadmap already exists<\/h2>\n

Back's “Bitcoin can add over time” comment points toward concrete proposals already circulating among developers.<\/p>\n

BIP-360, titled “Pay to Quantum Resistant Hash<\/a>,” defines new output types where spending conditions include both classical signatures and post-quantum signatures.<\/p>\n

A single UTXO becomes spendable under either scheme, allowing for a gradual migration rather than a hard cutoff.<\/p>\n

Jameson Lopp<\/a> and other developers have built on BIP-360 with a multi-year migration plan. First, add PQ-capable address types via soft fork. Then gradually encourage or subsidize moving coins from vulnerable outputs into PQ-protected ones, reserving some block space each block specifically for these “rescue” moves.<\/p>\n

Academic work dating back to 2017 has already recommended similar transitions. A 2025 preprint from Robert Campbell proposes hybrid post-quantum signatures, where transactions carry both ECDSA and PQ signatures during an extended transition period.<\/p>\n

The user-side picture reveals why this matters. Roughly 25% of all Bitcoin, between four and six million BTC, sits in address types where public keys are already exposed on-chain.<\/p>\n

Early pay-to-public-key outputs from Bitcoin's first years, reused P2PKH addresses, and some Taproot outputs all fall into this category. These coins become immediate targets once Shor on secp256k1 becomes practical.<\/p>\n

Modern best practice already provides substantial protection. Users who employ fresh P2PKH, SegWit, or Taproot addresses without reusing them benefit from a critical timing advantage.<\/p>\n

For these outputs, the public key remains hidden behind a hash until the first spend, compressing the attacker's window to run Shor within the mempool confirmation period, measured in minutes rather than years.<\/p>\n

The migration job isn't starting from scratch, it's building upon existing good practices and transitioning legacy coins into safer structures.<\/p>\n

The post-quantum toolbox is ready<\/h2>\n

Back's mention of SLH-DSA wasn't casual name-dropping. In August 2024, NIST finalized<\/a> the first wave of post-quantum standards: FIPS 203 ML-KEM for key encapsulation, FIPS 204 ML-DSA for lattice-based digital signatures, and FIPS 205 SLH-DSA for stateless hash-based digital signatures.<\/p>\n

NIST also standardized XMSS and LMS as stateful hash-based schemes, with the lattice-based Falcon scheme in the pipeline.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin developers now have a menu of NIST-approved algorithms, along with reference implementations and libraries.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin-focused implementations already support BIP-360, indicating that the post-quantum toolbox exists and continues to mature.<\/p>\n

The protocol doesn't need to invent brand-new mathematics, it can adopt established standards that have undergone years of cryptanalysis.<\/p>\n

That doesn't mean implementation comes without challenges. A 2025 paper examining SLH-DSA<\/a> found susceptibility to Rowhammer-style fault attacks, emphasizing that while security rests on ordinary hash functions, implementations still require hardening.<\/p>\n

Post-quantum signatures also consume more resources than their classical counterparts, raising questions about transaction sizes and the economics of fees.<\/p>\n

But these represent engineering problems with known parameters, not unsolved mathematical mysteries.<\/p>\n

Why 2025 isn't about quantum<\/h2>\n

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT<\/a>) amended its prospectus in May 2025<\/a> to include extensive disclosures about quantum computing risk, warning that a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could compromise Bitcoin's cryptography.<\/p>\n

Analysts immediately recognized this as standard risk-factor disclosure, boilerplate language alongside generic technology and regulatory risks, rather than a signal that BlackRock<\/a> expects imminent quantum attacks.<\/p>\n

The near-term threat is investor sentiment, rather than the technology of quantum computing itself.<\/p>\n

A 2025 SSRN study found<\/a> that news related to quantum computing triggers some rotation into explicitly quantum-resistant coins. Still, conventional cryptocurrencies exhibit only modest negative returns and volume spikes around such news, rather than structural repricing.<\/p>\n

When examining what actually drove Bitcoin's movement throughout 2024 and 2025, going through ETF flows, macroeconomic data, regulation, and liquidity cycles, quantum computing rarely appears as a proximate cause.<\/p>\n

CPI prints, ETF outflow days, and regulatory shocks drive price action, while quantum computing generates headlines.<\/p>\n

Even articles sounding the loudest alarms about “25% of Bitcoin at risk” frame the threat as years away while emphasizing the need to start upgrading now.<\/p>\n

The framing consistently lands on “governance and engineering problem” rather than “sell immediately.”<\/p>\n

Stakes are about defaults, not deadlines<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin's quantum story isn't really about whether a cryptographically relevant quantum computer arrives in 2035 or 2045. It's about whether the protocol's governance can coordinate upgrades before that date becomes relevant.<\/p>\n

Every serious analysis converges on the same conclusion that the time to prepare is now, precisely because migration takes a decade, not because the threat is imminent.<\/p>\n

The question that will determine Bitcoin's quantum resilience is whether developers can build consensus around BIP-360 or similar proposals, whether the community can incentivize migration of legacy coins without fracturing, and whether communication can stay grounded enough to prevent panic from outrunning physics.<\/p>\n

In 2025, quantum computing poses a governance challenge that necessitates a 10- to 20-year roadmap, rather than a catalyst that will dictate this cycle's price action.<\/p>\n

Physics advances slowly, and a roadmap is visible.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin's role is to adopt PQ-ready tools well before the hardware arrives, and to do so without the governance gridlock that can turn a solvable problem into a self-inflicted crisis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For years, quantum computing has served as cryptocurrency’s favorite doomsday scenario, a distant but existential threat that periodically resurfaces whenever a lab announces a qubit milestone. The narrative follows a predictable arc where researchers achieve some incremental breakthrough, social media erupts with “Bitcoin is dead” predictions, and the news cycle moves on. But Adam Back’s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1511,"featured_media":507513,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,80837,37],"tags":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy Adam Backs thinks Bitcoin's 20-year quantum runway matters more than today's headlines<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin faces "probably not" any vulnerability to a cryptographically relevant quantum computer for roughly 20 to 40 years.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/why-adam-backs-thinks-bitcoins-20-year-quantum-runway-matters-more-than-todays-headlines\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Adam Backs thinks Bitcoin's 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