{"id":466857,"date":"2025-02-25T10:45:24","date_gmt":"2025-02-25T10:45:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=466857"},"modified":"2025-02-25T10:16:54","modified_gmt":"2025-02-25T10:16:54","slug":"bitcoin-crash-forewarned-by-analysts-citing-sustained-negative-growth-territory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-crash-forewarned-by-analysts-citing-sustained-negative-growth-territory\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin crash forewarned by analysts citing sustained negative growth territory"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) price movements reflected a period of consolidation before dropping below $90,000<\/a> after BTC failed to break above its all-time high in February. According to the latest edition of the \u201cBitfinex Alpha\u201d report, macroeconomic uncertainty worsens this scenario.<\/span><\/p>\n

Over the past week, Bitcoin fluctuated within a 6.5% range, peaking at $99,574 on Feb. 21 before closing at $96,346. Since it has dropped a further 7.5% to $88,600 as of press time.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Two significant events exacerbated the market downturn: a<\/span> hack involving crypto exchange<\/a><\/strong> Bybit<\/a> and a sharp decline following the expiration of S&P 500 options. The latter resulted in a 4.7% drop that temporarily pushed Bitcoin below $95,000 before recovering.<\/span><\/p>\n

As of Feb. 22, Bitcoin had declined 5.9% from its recent peak and now sits down 19% despite a 48.4% surge in November 2024. Ethereum (ETH<\/a>) and Solana (SOL<\/a>), which also saw substantial gains in late 2024, have retreated 16.9% and 33.1%, respectively.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Memecoins, which tend to experience extreme volatility, declined 37.4% after recording a 90.2% rally in December 2024. They have since fallen an average of 12% across the board over the past 12 hours.<\/span><\/p>\n

The contraction is not isolated to digital assets. The broader financial market has also struggled, particularly the S&P 500, which had difficulty sustaining a rally above the 6,000 level and now sits at 5950 in pre-market.<\/span><\/p>\n

A 2.1% drop in equities on Feb. 21 mirrored the downward pressure across risk assets, including crypto. Feb. 24 saw it fall even further. The correlation between crypto and traditional markets remains a defining factor, with investors responding to broader macroeconomic signals.<\/span><\/p>\n

Institutional demand and ETF flows<\/span><\/h2>\n

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen a marked slowdown in inflows, indicating reduced institutional interest. US-based Bitcoin ETF purchases have dropped from daily acquisitions of 4,000\u20135,000 BTC in November to less than 1,000 BTC per day over the past week.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, ETF outflows peaked at $360 million on Feb. 20, reflecting a decline in bullish sentiment.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite this, buy-side activity showed resilience at lower price levels, with Bitcoin ETFs contributing over 8% of global spot trading volume on Feb. 21.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Ethereum ETF participation remains weak, with net flows hovering near zero in certain funds. The muted demand from institutional investors suggests hesitation regarding crypto exposure in the current market environment.<\/span><\/p>\n

A broader reduction in capital inflows is evident within the perpetual futures market, where open interest (OI) across major assets has fallen significantly. Over 30 days, Bitcoin's OI decreased by 11.1%, while Ethereum and Solana saw declines of 23.8% and 6.2%, respectively.<\/span><\/p>\n

Memecoins experienced the steepest drop, with a 52.1% reduction in OI, highlighting their reliance on speculative trading.<\/span><\/p>\n

The decline in leveraged positions suggests traders are scaling back exposure amid weakening momentum and heightened uncertainty.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The report noted that the sharpest retracement in OI is observed in assets with higher volatility, reinforcing the risk-averse sentiment among market participants.<\/span><\/p>\n

Potential for further decrease and negative sentiment<\/span><\/h2>\n

Before last night's crash, Julio Moreno, head of research at\u00a0<\/span>CryptoQuant<\/a>,\u00a0<\/span>highlighted<\/strong><\/a> on-chain data indicating that Bitcoin demand is in negative growth territory.<\/span>\u00a0This is the first time BTC has entered this area since September.<\/span><\/p>\n

This condition makes it harder for BTC to rally, increasing the risks of a deeper correction, which is starting to play out.<\/span><\/p>\n

Furthermore, this increased the negative sentiment among investors. As Milk Road <\/span>shared<\/a><\/strong> on X, although Bitcoin is 14% shy of its previous all-time high at $109,354 as of press time, the crypto market sentiment is mirroring levels seen in August 2024.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That month, Bitcoin was priced at around $55,000 and crashed massively following the Yen carry-trade incident.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin (BTC) price movements reflected a period of consolidation before dropping below $90,000 after BTC failed to break above its all-time high in February. According to the latest edition of the \u201cBitfinex Alpha\u201d report, macroeconomic uncertainty worsens this scenario. Over the past week, Bitcoin fluctuated within a 6.5% range, peaking at $99,574 on Feb. 21 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1511,"featured_media":466860,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"prediction_market_topic":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin crash forewarned by analysts citing sustained negative growth territory<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Macro landscape is holding Bitcoin in a consolidation range for over 90 days, raising risks of a deeper correction.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-crash-forewarned-by-analysts-citing-sustained-negative-growth-territory\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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