{"id":464310,"date":"2025-02-06T01:00:40","date_gmt":"2025-02-06T01:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=464310"},"modified":"2025-02-06T00:01:10","modified_gmt":"2025-02-06T00:01:10","slug":"analyst-sets-95000-ceiling-for-bitcoin-fair-value-amid-declining-network-activity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/analyst-sets-95000-ceiling-for-bitcoin-fair-value-amid-declining-network-activity\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst sets $95,000 ceiling for Bitcoin fair value amid declining network activity"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bitcoin (<a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/coins\/bitcoin\/\">BTC<\/a>) network activity has reached its lowest level in a year, bringing its fair value to between $48,000 and $95,000, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/companies\/cryptoquant\/\">CryptoQuant<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at roughly $96,500, making the flagship crypto overvalued from a network activity perspective based on CryptoQuant's valuation model.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Bitcoin Network Activity Index has declined 15% since its peak in November 2024. It is now at 3,760, the lowest level since February 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A decline in the number of transactions primarily drives the decrease in activity. The total daily transaction count is currently 346,000, marking a 53% drop from the all-time high of 734,000 recorded in September 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Runes down in popularity<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The decline in network activity is largely driven by reduced use of the Runes protocol for token minting on Bitcoin. Runes relies on OP_RETURN codes to store token-related data, but the number of these codes used in transactions has dropped significantly.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In April 2024, daily OP RETURN codes reached 802,000.\u00a0 However, the number has since dropped to a 10,000 daily average in January.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>In April 2024, daily OP_RETURN codes peaked at 802,000 but have since fallen to an average of 10,000 per day in January.<\/p>\n<p>As of Feb. 4, Runes-related transactions totaled 6,110, accounting for about 2.5% of Bitcoin's daily transaction volume, based on data from a Dune Analytics <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/dune.com\/cryptokoryo\/runes\">dashboard<\/a><\/strong> created by Crypto Koryo.<\/p>\n<p>From Jan. 1 to Feb. 4, Bitcoin transfers made up 73.5% of daily network activity, significantly surpassing transactions related to Ordinals, BRC-20 tokens, and Runes.<\/p>\n<p>This decline is also evident in Bitcoin's mempool. Unconfirmed transactions have plummeted from 287,000 in December 2024 to just 3,000 \u2014 a 99% drop. The mempool last recorded such low activity in March 2022.<\/p>\n<p>Despite signals that BTC may be overpriced,<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/companies\/bitfinex\/\">Bitfinex<\/a><\/span> said in a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-remains-resilient-despite-recent-trump-tariff-shock-bitfinex\/\">recent report<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0that Bitcoin remains resilient, even after the market shock caused by <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;\">President <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/people\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Donald<\/a><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/people\/donald-trump\/\">\u00a0Trump's<\/a><\/span> tariff plans.<\/p>\n<p>In January, BTC outperformed the broader crypto market by gaining 9.4%, while the wider market saw an average decline of 25.7%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin (BTC) network activity has reached its lowest level in a year, bringing its fair value to between $48,000 and $95,000, according to CryptoQuant. As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at roughly $96,500, making the flagship crypto overvalued from a network activity perspective based on CryptoQuant&#8217;s valuation model. The Bitcoin Network Activity Index has [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1511,"featured_media":464318,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120,1,77968,15323],"tags":[],"prediction_market_topic":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Analyst sets $95,000 ceiling for Bitcoin fair value amid declining network activity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The report attributes the falling network activity to the declining popularity of the Runes protocol.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/analyst-sets-95000-ceiling-for-bitcoin-fair-value-amid-declining-network-activity\/\" 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