{"id":451248,"date":"2024-11-01T20:00:16","date_gmt":"2024-11-01T20:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=451248"},"modified":"2024-11-13T23:17:55","modified_gmt":"2024-11-13T23:17:55","slug":"polymarket-odds-suggest-us-elections-will-be-decided-by-pennsylvania","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/polymarket-odds-suggest-us-elections-will-be-decided-by-pennsylvania\/","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket odds suggest US elections will be decided by Pennsylvania"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vice President <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/people\/kamala-harris\/\">Kamala Harris<\/a> <\/span>overtook<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> former President <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/people\/donald-trump\/\">Donald Trump's<\/a> odds of <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/elections\">winning<\/a> in Michigan and Wisconsin on prediction market <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/companies\/polymarket\/\">Polymarket<\/a>. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Harris wins the two swing states, the state of Pennsylvania will become the deciding factor in who wins the US presidential election.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Current odds<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The odds took a sharp turn in favor of Harris in two out of six &#8220;battleground states&#8221; following the publication of a <\/span><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/s3.documentcloud.org\/documents\/25260795\/cnn-polls-harris-and-trump-remain-neck-and-neck-in-georgia-and-north-carolina.pdf\">CNN poll<\/a><\/strong><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> conducted by SRSS on Oct. 31, which showed no clear advantage for either candidate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As a result, Harris' odds to win Wisconsin and Michigan grew by 5% and 6%, respectively. Additionally, her overall odds of winning the entire election grew from 2.3% to 39.6% but remained significantly below Trump's 60.3%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump has a 22.2% lead over Harris in overall odds. He also has a 14% lead in Pennsylvania and a large margin in the remaining three swing states:\u00a0Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Furthermore, a <\/span><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/glxyresearch\/status\/1852380472027889900\">report<\/a><\/strong><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> published by Galaxy Research shows that Trump is leading in 18 different venues, varying from proprietary models to prediction markets. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, the data revealed that most results are tight, with the former president losing its lead on 13 out of 18 venues assessed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Polymarket hits new records<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The heated US elections are driving Polymarket to break new records. In October, the prediction market reached 220,682 unique traders, a 174% growth compared to September, according to a Dune Analytics <\/span><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/dune.com\/rchen8\/polymarket\">dashboard<\/a><\/strong><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> created by user rchen8.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Moreover, the monthly trading volume reached nearly $2.3 billion, soaring 353% in one month. This is likely tied to election-betting activity, as 85% of the activity on Polymarket last month was related to this topic.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Recently, manipulation rumors on Polymarket began to spread, with researchers from Chaos Labs stating in an Oct. 30 Fortune <\/span><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/crypto\/2024\/10\/30\/polymarket-trump-election-crypto-wash-trading-researchers\/\">report<\/a><\/strong><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that the platform is &#8220;rife with fake wash trading.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, those claims were not proven, with voices such as Tarek Mansour, CEO of prediction market Kalshi, <\/span><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/mansourtarek_\/status\/1848076690229973297\">arguing<\/a><\/strong><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that prediction markets' odds are not manipulated.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Vice President Kamala Harris overtook former President Donald Trump&#8217;s odds of winning in Michigan and Wisconsin on prediction market Polymarket. If Harris wins the two swing states, the state of Pennsylvania will become the deciding factor in who wins the US presidential election. Current odds The odds took a sharp turn in favor of Harris [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1511,"featured_media":448579,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[79621,77968],"tags":[],"prediction_market_topic":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Polymarket odds suggest US elections will be decided by Pennsylvania<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Harris surpassed Trump&#039;s odds of winning on Polymarket in Michigan and Wisconsin, two of the &#039;battleground states.&#039;\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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