{"id":428856,"date":"2024-06-26T18:00:47","date_gmt":"2024-06-26T17:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=428856"},"modified":"2024-06-26T18:12:09","modified_gmt":"2024-06-26T17:12:09","slug":"bitwise-cio-predicts-15-billion-inflow-into-ethereum-etfs-despite-potential-grayscale-outflows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitwise-cio-predicts-15-billion-inflow-into-ethereum-etfs-despite-potential-grayscale-outflows\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitwise CIO predicts $15 billion inflow into Ethereum ETFs despite potential Grayscale outflows"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has predicted that the impending spot <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/coins\/ethereum\/\">Ethereum<\/a> exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will see a $15 billion net flow within their first 18 months of trading.<\/p>\n<p>Hougan shared this <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Matt_Hougan\/status\/1805941968838533534\">forecast<\/a> on June 26, basing his prediction on Ethereum's market capitalization relative to <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/coins\/bitcoin\/\">Bitcoin<\/a>, data from international ETP markets, and the potential influence of the carry trade strategy.<\/p>\n<p>However, he acknowledged the possibility of net outflows from the ETH ETPs after the initial launch, considering traders involved in discount arbitrage aggressively redeem their positions from Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE). A <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/grayscale-selling-pressure-largely-behind-us-spotlight-on-newborn-nine-jp-morgan\/\">similar trend was observed<\/a> from Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust when the Bitcoin ETFs were launched in January.<\/p>\n<p>Despite this, Hougan believes the Ethereum ETPs will succeed because the underlying asset is one of the best-performing assets ever.<\/p>\n<h2>BTC and ETH relative size<\/h2>\n<p>The Bitwise CIO explained that he expects investors to allocate funds to spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in proportion to their market caps, which are currently $1.26 trillion and $432 billion, respectively. This suggests a weighting of around 74% for Bitcoin ETFs and 26% for Ethereum ETFs.<\/p>\n<p>Hougan furthered that US spot <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/insights\/blackrocks-ibit-only-outflow-marked-local-bitcoin-bottom-indicating-key-signal\/\">Bitcoin ETF's assets under management (AUM)<\/a> should increase to at least $100 billion by the end of 2025 as these products mature and gain approval on platforms like Morgan Stanley.<\/p>\n<p>Considering this, Hougan stated that Ethereum ETFs must attract $35 billion in 18 months to reach parity. However, when <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/grayscales-ethereum-trust-discount-narrows-to-3-year-low-as-etf-approval-looms\/\">Grayscale Ethereum Trust's<\/a> $10 billion AUM is removed, the figure drops to $25 billion.<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #333333; font-size: 22px; font-weight: bold;\">International ETP<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Hougan noted that data from the European Bitcoin and Ethereum ETP markets revealed AUM ratios of 78% for Bitcoin and 22% for <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/pantera-may-invest-100-million-in-bitwise-spot-ethereum-etf-optimistic-toward-all-funds\/\">Ethereum products<\/a>. In Canada, these figures stood at 77% for Bitcoin and 23% for Ethereum.<\/p>\n<p>According to him, the similarity in asset splits between the two regions suggests that this distribution reflects the relative demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum among ETP investors. Hougan stated:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p data-v-f87c67ca=\"\">&#8220;The fact that the split is roughly in line with the relative market capitalization of the two assets adds to my confidence that this kind of break-down reflects &#8220;normal&#8221; demand.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Using Europe's 22% market share as a proxy, Hougan adjusted his expected net flows from $25 billion to $18 billion.<\/p>\n<h2>Carry trade<\/h2>\n<p>Hougan also highlighted &#8220;the carry trade&#8221; as one important factor impacting Ethereum ETF flows. A <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/experts-worry-ethenas-bitcoin-backing-strategy-for-usde-could-bring-contagion-risks\/\">carry trade<\/a> is a trading strategy in which investors arbitrage the difference between an underlying asset's spot and futures prices.<\/p>\n<p>The Bitwise CIO noted that around $10 billion of spot Bitcoin ETF AUM is tied to this trading strategy. However, he doesn't expect spot Ethereum ETFs to follow the same pattern because &#8220;carry trade is not reliably profitable in ETH for non-staked assets.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>He added that he does not expect carry trading to impact the AUM of spot Ethereum ETFs. Considering this, Hougan cut his estimate for net inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs to $15 billion.<\/p>\n<p data-v-f87c67ca=\"\">According to him:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p data-v-f87c67ca=\"\">&#8220;[This number] would be a historic success [as] only four ETFs launched since January 2020 have gathered $15 billion in flows.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has predicted that the impending spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will see a $15 billion net flow within their first 18 months of trading. Hougan shared this forecast on June 26, basing his prediction on Ethereum&#8217;s market capitalization relative to Bitcoin, data from international ETP markets, and the potential influence of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":720,"featured_media":428857,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,78665,77968],"tags":[77156,76718,72190],"prediction_market_topic":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitwise CIO predicts $15 billion inflow into Ethereum ETFs despite potential Grayscale outflows<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan forecasts $15 billion for Ethereum ETFs in potential record launch.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitwise-cio-predicts-15-billion-inflow-into-ethereum-etfs-despite-potential-grayscale-outflows\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitwise CIO predicts $15 billion inflow into Ethereum ETFs despite potential Grayscale outflows\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan forecasts $15 billion for Ethereum ETFs in potential record launch.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitwise-cio-predicts-15-billion-inflow-into-ethereum-etfs-despite-potential-grayscale-outflows\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"CryptoSlate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-06-26T17:00:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-06-26T17:12:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/ethereum-etf-.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Oluwapelumi Adejumo\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cryptoslate\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cryptoslate\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Oluwapelumi Adejumo\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitwise-cio-predicts-15-billion-inflow-into-ethereum-etfs-despite-potential-grayscale-outflows\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitwise-cio-predicts-15-billion-inflow-into-ethereum-etfs-despite-potential-grayscale-outflows\/\"},\"author\":{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/oluwapelumi-adejumo\/#person\",\"name\":\"Oluwapelumi Adejumo\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/oluwapelumi-adejumo\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/oluwapelumi-adejumo\/\"},\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/oluwapelumi-adejumo\/#authorimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/profile-photo-oluwapelumi-adejumo-300x300.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/profile-photo-oluwapelumi-adejumo-300x300.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Oluwapelumi Adejumo\"},\"jobTitle\":\"Senior Reporter\",\"description\":\"Oluwapelumi values Bitcoin's potential. 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