{"id":350418,"date":"2023-08-16T17:30:02","date_gmt":"2023-08-16T16:30:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=350418"},"modified":"2023-08-16T17:32:38","modified_gmt":"2023-08-16T16:32:38","slug":"sth-sell-side-risk-ratio-drops-to-decade-low","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/sth-sell-side-risk-ratio-drops-to-decade-low\/","title":{"rendered":"STH sell-side risk ratio drops to record low: What does it mean for Bitcoin?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\">The crypto market has experienced an unusual <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoins-tight-trading-range-mirrored-by-flat-hash-ribbons\/\">lack of volatility<\/a> throughout most of the summer. Seeing such stability in what has historically been a very tumultuous market has prompted many market participants to halt their activity.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">This lack of activity has translated to a lower sell-off risk, especially among short-term holders.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Short-term holders, typically those who hold their <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/coins\/bitcoin\/\">Bitcoin<\/a> for less than 155 days, play a pivotal role in the crypto market. Short-term price fluctuations drive their trading behavior, often leading to price volatility and pronounced liquidity shifts. Short-term holders can amplify price swings during market uncertainty by quickly moving in and out of positions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Their propensity to react quickly to market events makes them a crucial cohort to monitor to understand <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/short-term-holders-kept-bitcoins-price-stable-but-constrained\/\">potential market shifts and sentiment<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">The short-term holder (STH) sell-side risk ratio is a technical indicator that shows the potential for sell-side market pressure. It\u2019s derived by dividing the aggregate of all profits and losses realized on-chain by the realized cap. This essentially compares the total USD-denominated value that investors transact daily against the overall STH realized cap.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">When the risk ratio is high, it suggests many investors are selling their holdings, potentially to take profits. Prolonged periods of an elevated STH sell-side risk ratio can indicate oversupply and market sentiment that leans towards overvaluation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">In contrast, drops in the sell-side risk ratio show a decrease in the value realization by short-term holders. Periods of low sell-side risk ratio correlate with periods of low volatility and are often seen during consolidations that precede large market movements.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Currently, the ratio for short-term Bitcoin holders is at 0.05%, a level not seen in nearly 13 years.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_350421\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-350421\" style=\"width: 1800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-350421\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/sth-sell-side-risk-ratio-ytd.png\" alt=\"sth sell side risk ratio ytd\" width=\"1800\" height=\"1013\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/sth-sell-side-risk-ratio-ytd.png 1800w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/sth-sell-side-risk-ratio-ytd-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/sth-sell-side-risk-ratio-ytd-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/sth-sell-side-risk-ratio-ytd-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/sth-sell-side-risk-ratio-ytd-1536x864.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1800px) 100vw, 1800px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-350421\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graph showing the sell-side risk ratio for short-term holders in 2023 (Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/studio.glassnode.com\/workbench\/6870c4c9-b605-485f-6321-d141ca263e44?s=1672527600&u=1692189374&zoom=ytd\">Glassnode<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"p1\">To provide historical context, the only time the ratio has been lower was on Oct. 3, 2010, when it dropped to 0.025%. At the time, Bitcoin\u2019s price hovered around $0.06.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_350425\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-350425\" style=\"width: 1800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-350425 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/sth-sell-side-risk-ratio-all.png\" alt=\"sth sell side risk ratio all\" width=\"1800\" height=\"1013\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/sth-sell-side-risk-ratio-all.png 1800w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/sth-sell-side-risk-ratio-all-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/sth-sell-side-risk-ratio-all-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/sth-sell-side-risk-ratio-all-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/sth-sell-side-risk-ratio-all-1536x864.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1800px) 100vw, 1800px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-350425\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graph showing the sell-side risk ratio for short-term holders from 2010 to 2023 (Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/studio.glassnode.com\/workbench\/6870c4c9-b605-485f-6321-d141ca263e44?zoom=all\">Glassnode<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"p1\">Historical trends suggest that periods of extremely low sell-side risk ratios, particularly among short-term holders, often come before large price swings in the market. This pattern indicates that the market might be on the cusp of a substantial shift, either bullish or bearish.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The crypto market has experienced an unusual lack of volatility throughout most of the summer. Seeing such stability in what has historically been a very tumultuous market has prompted many market participants to halt their activity. This lack of activity has translated to a lower sell-off risk, especially among short-term holders. Short-term holders, typically those [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":759,"featured_media":350424,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[77921],"tags":[78789,78613,78751,78585],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>STH sell-side risk ratio drops to record low: What does it mean for Bitcoin?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The sell-side risk ratio for short-term holders dropped to 0.05%, the second-lowest it has been since 2010.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/sth-sell-side-risk-ratio-drops-to-decade-low\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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