{"id":310974,"date":"2023-03-21T13:00:28","date_gmt":"2023-03-21T13:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=310974"},"modified":"2024-02-14T03:34:14","modified_gmt":"2024-02-14T03:34:14","slug":"bitcoin-long-term-holders-locking-in-profits-could-lead-to-btc-price-pullback","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-long-term-holders-locking-in-profits-could-lead-to-btc-price-pullback\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin long-term holders locking in profits could lead to BTC price pullback"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\">Previous <em>CryptoSlate<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/research-a-look-at-how-long-term-holders-determine-end-of-bear-markets\/\">analysis<\/a> revealed that the crypto industry is slowly getting out of the bear market. However, the transition from a bear market to a bull market is often a tumultuous and volatile process.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Long-term holders (LTH) are the most important factors in this part of the cycle, as their behavior determines local bottoms and fuels future price rallies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">As Bitcoin (<a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/coins\/bitcoin\/\">BTC<\/a>) surged past $28,000, LTHs rushed to sell some of their holdings for the first time in almost a year. The previous few months were spent in heavy accumulation, with LTHs increasing their holdings continuously from November 2022 until the end of February. The slight decrease in their supply that began in February saw an almost vertical drop between March 15 and March 17 \u2014 when LTHs sold off approximately 43,543 BTC.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_311028\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-311028\" style=\"width: 1800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-311028 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-total-supply-held-by-long-term-holders-btc.png\" alt=\"bitcoin long-term holder supply\" width=\"1800\" height=\"1013\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-total-supply-held-by-long-term-holders-btc.png 1800w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-total-supply-held-by-long-term-holders-btc-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-total-supply-held-by-long-term-holders-btc-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-total-supply-held-by-long-term-holders-btc-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-total-supply-held-by-long-term-holders-btc-1536x864.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1800px) 100vw, 1800px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-311028\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graph showing the LTH BTC supply from January 2022 to March 2023 (Source: Glassnode)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"p1\">This is the first time since May 2022 that long-term holders spent some of their BTC in profit.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Bitcoin's Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) \u2014 a ratio that shows the profitability of spent BTC \u2014 reached 1.02 on March 16. It surged past 1.14 again on March 18 and stood at 0.98 at press time. A SOPR value higher than 1 implies that the coins spent on that day are, on average, selling at a profit.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_311026\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-311026\" style=\"width: 1800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-311026 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-long-term-holder-sopr.png\" alt=\"bitcoin long-term holder sopr\" width=\"1800\" height=\"1013\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-long-term-holder-sopr.png 1800w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-long-term-holder-sopr-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-long-term-holder-sopr-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-long-term-holder-sopr-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-long-term-holder-sopr-1536x864.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1800px) 100vw, 1800px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-311026\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graph showing the Bitcoin LTH SOPR from January 2020 to March 2023 (Source: Glassnode)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em>CryptoSlate<\/em> analysis also showed that the long-term holder spending cost basis has almost met Bitcoin's spot price. On March 20, LTH spending cost basis reached just over $29,000 \u2014 while BTC reached $28,400.<\/p>\n<figure style=\"width: 1800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/FrqHJxmXsAEGXlG?format=jpg&name=large\" alt=\"long-term holder spending cost basis\" width=\"1800\" height=\"1013\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graph showing Bitcoin LTH SOPR and spending cost basis from 2011 to 2023 (Source: Glassnode)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"p1\">This is the first time since January 2020 that long-term holders sold their BTC to lock in profits. All LTH selloffs since then have been a result of capitulation. This behavior is seen in the increase in transfer volume from LTHs to exchange addresses.<\/p>\n<figure style=\"width: 1200px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/Fru86vWWAAEfZ0R?format=jpg&name=medium\" alt=\"long-term holder transfer volume to exchanges\" width=\"1200\" height=\"665\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graph showing Bitcoin's transfer volume from long-term holders to exchanges from January 2020 to March 2023 (Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/glassnode.com\/\">Glassnode<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"p1\">If LTHs continue to sell their BTC, we could see a price pullback in the coming weeks. The market tends to react with volatility whenever long-term holder supply decreases, which could erase most of the gains Bitcoin made since the ongoing banking crisis began.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Previous CryptoSlate analysis revealed that the crypto industry is slowly getting out of the bear market. However, the transition from a bear market to a bull market is often a tumultuous and volatile process. Long-term holders (LTH) are the most important factors in this part of the cycle, as their behavior determines local bottoms and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":759,"featured_media":311030,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[77921],"tags":[78448,78449,77963],"prediction_market_topic":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin long-term holders locking in profits could lead to BTC price pullback<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Long-term holders are selling their Bitcoin, racing to lock in profits for the first time since May 2022 as Bitcoin surges past $28,000.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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