{"id":309986,"date":"2023-03-18T20:21:34","date_gmt":"2023-03-18T20:21:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=309986"},"modified":"2023-04-21T12:05:07","modified_gmt":"2023-04-21T11:05:07","slug":"macroslate-weekly-bitcoin-shines-through-banking-failures-bailouts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/macroslate-weekly-bitcoin-shines-through-banking-failures-bailouts\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin shines through banking failures, bailouts: MacroSlate Weekly"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Macro Highlights<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/insights\/bitcoin-smashes-through-25000-on-expected-cpi-news\/\">U.S inflation<\/a> is too high for rate relief but mostly in line with expectations<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/insights\/ecb-rate-hike-verdict-is-50bps-bitcoin-stands-firm-just-below-25k\/\">ECB raised<\/a> a further 50bps taking their deposit facility rate to 3%<\/li>\n<li>Silicon Valley Bank files for chapter 11 bankruptcy<\/li>\n<li>Credit Suisse and First Republic Bank continue to be provided with <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/insights\/bailout-bailout-bailout-further-backstops-and-liquidity-for-credit-suisse-as-all-roads-lead-to-bitcoin\/\">liquidity<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fed initiated <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/insights\/stealth-qe-feds-balance-sheet-grows-300b-bitcoin-breaks-26000\/\">stealth QE<\/a>\u00a0as balance sheet grows<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Bitcoin Highlights<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Bitcoin hits $27,000, up roughly 60% YTD<\/li>\n<li>Bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/insights\/bitcoin-looks-extremely-healthy-as-open-interest-drops-almost-15-in-the-past-two-weeks\/\">open interest<\/a> has dropped by 15% in the past two weeks<\/li>\n<li>BTC<a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/insights\/eth-btc-continues-to-break-down-while-almost-1b-of-bitcoin-flows-back-onto-exchanges\/\"> dominates against Ethereum<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/insights\/self-custody-surge-70k-bitcoin-have-been-sent-to-self-custody-since-the-collapse-of-svb\/\">self-custody<\/a> surges<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Stealth QE and bailouts<\/h2>\n<h3>Stealth bailouts<\/h3>\n<p>Credit Suisse grabbed a liquidity lifeline thrown by the Swiss National Bank and borrowed up to 50 billion CHF, the equivalent of 6.25% of the Swiss GDP.\u00a0 Credit Suisse's share price has tanked roughly 20% this week while its default swaps continue to blow out.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_310019\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-310019\" style=\"width: 646px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-310019 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/CDS-1.png\" alt=\"1 year CDS: (Source: Bloomberg)\" width=\"646\" height=\"219\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/CDS-1.png 646w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/CDS-1-300x102.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 646px) 100vw, 646px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-310019\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">1 year CDS: (Source: Bloomberg)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>It's not just Credit Suisse who were provided a lifeline; First Republic Bank's (FRB) share price has dropped 78% in the past month. News was announced that 11 big banks were helping FRB as they pledged $30 billion. However, the stock continued to slide into Friday's session.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_310018\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-310018\" style=\"width: 949px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-310018 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/30-1.png\" alt=\"$30 B Deposits: (Source: Charlie Bilello)\" width=\"949\" height=\"323\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/30-1.png 949w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/30-1-300x102.png 300w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/30-1-768x261.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 949px) 100vw, 949px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-310018\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">$30 B Deposits: (Source: Charlie Bilello)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3>Stealth QE<\/h3>\n<p>The fed balance sheet has increased by over $300 billion this week, which has jumped to $8.69 trillion, wiping out half the quantitative tightening the fed has been doing for the past year.<\/p>\n<p>The increase in the balance sheet is from the program BTFP; in layman's terms, this allows institutions to swap devalued assets for full-value cash. In addition, the fed's discount window went parabolic to $148 billion this week, the highest level since 2008. Again, in layman's terms, distressed banks call for fed liquidity.<\/p>\n<h3>Balance sheet growth<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Approximately +$148.3 billion \u2013 net discount window borrowing.<\/li>\n<li>Approximately, +$11.9 billion \u2013 the new Bank Term Funding Program<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Subtotal: $160.2 billion<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Approximately +$142.8 billion \u2013 borrowing for banks seized by FDIC Total:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This totals = $303 billion<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_310023\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-310023\" style=\"width: 1320px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-310023 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/ba2-1.png\" alt=\"Total assets Fed Balance Sheet: (Source: FRED)\" width=\"1320\" height=\"445\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/ba2-1.png 1320w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/ba2-1-300x101.png 300w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/ba2-1-1024x345.png 1024w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/ba2-1-768x259.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1320px) 100vw, 1320px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-310023\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Total assets Fed Balance Sheet: (Source: FRED)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>ECB hikes 50bps ignores forward guidance<\/h2>\n<p>ECB hiked <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/insights\/ecb-rate-hike-verdict-is-50bps-bitcoin-stands-firm-just-below-25k\/\">50bps<\/a> for the third consecutive session, increasing its deposit facility rate to 3%. Just six months ago, the deposit rate was at 0. Lagarde and the ECB remain firm in their &#8220;commitment to fight inflation.&#8221;, which is &#8220;projected too high for too long.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Forward guidance was removed, and no understanding of future moves, instead reiterated, &#8220;the elevated level of uncertainty reinforces the importance of a data-dependent approach&#8221;.<\/p>\n<h2>All eyes on the FOMC next week<\/h2>\n<p>The next FOMC meeting is on March 22, and markets are expecting a 25bps rate hike, and assuming nothing else major breaks, I think we will get it. After that, it's anyone's guess for the future path of the fed funds.<\/p>\n<p>Powell goes into the meeting with a massive choice in either trying to contain inflation or saving a fragile financial system.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_310045\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-310045\" style=\"width: 1399px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-310045 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/fed1.png\" alt=\"Fed Funds: (Source: CME fed watch tool)\" width=\"1399\" height=\"798\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/fed1.png 1399w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/fed1-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/fed1-1024x584.png 1024w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/fed1-768x438.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1399px) 100vw, 1399px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-310045\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Fed Funds: (Source: CME fed watch tool)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Macro Highlights U.S inflation is too high for rate relief but mostly in line with expectations ECB raised a further 50bps taking their deposit facility rate to 3% Silicon Valley Bank files for chapter 11 bankruptcy Credit Suisse and First Republic Bank continue to be provided with liquidity Fed initiated stealth QE\u00a0as balance sheet grows [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1379,"featured_media":265404,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[77911],"tags":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin shines through banking failures, bailouts: MacroSlate Weekly<\/title>\n<meta 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