{"id":277920,"date":"2022-12-01T15:36:07","date_gmt":"2022-12-01T15:36:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=277920"},"modified":"2022-12-01T15:36:07","modified_gmt":"2022-12-01T15:36:07","slug":"research-bitcoin-halving-pattern-suggests-price-will-cross-above-higher-realized-value","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/research-bitcoin-halving-pattern-suggests-price-will-cross-above-higher-realized-value\/","title":{"rendered":"Research: Bitcoin halving pattern suggests price will cross above higher, realized value"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Bitcoin halving refers to an event where miners' block rewards are cut in half. This occurs roughly every four years, depending on when a total of 210,000 blocks have been mined from the previous halving go-live date.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, the number of new tokens entering circulation slows and fewer tokens enter the supply &#8211; making Bitcoin more scarce over time.<\/p>\n<p>This process will continue to the last halving in <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JasonYanowitz\/status\/1597402757115580417\">2136<\/a> when the mining reward will be cut to 0.00000001 BTC.<\/p>\n<h2>Where are we in the current Bitcoin halving cycle?<\/h2>\n<p>The third and next halving is on track to finalize on <a href=\"https:\/\/buybitcoinworldwide.com\/halving\/\">March 25, 2024<\/a>, with approximately 75,000 blocks left to mine before hitting that point.<\/p>\n<p>Based on this moving estimate, the number of days from the previous halving, on May 11, 2020, comes to 1,414 days. Previous halvings took:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>1st halving: Nov. 28, 2012 to July 8, 2016 &#8211; 1,318 days.<\/li>\n<li>2nd halving: July 9, 2016 to May 10, 2020 &#8211; 1,401 days<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The price on halving day has, so far, recorded gains above the price on the previous halving day, lending support to the theory that BTC scarcity drives price upwards.<\/p>\n<p>But is that the full story?<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-277925\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/halving.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"993\" height=\"412\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/halving.jpg 993w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/halving-300x124.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/halving-768x319.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 993px) 100vw, 993px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Realized Price<\/h2>\n<p>Realized Price is calculated by taking the realized total market cap and divided by the number of Bitcoin in circulation. In other words, Realized Price is an alternative to the actual market price and measures what the market as a whole paid for its BTC on average.<\/p>\n<p>Traders consider Realized Price as on-chain support and resistance price levels. An actual price above the Realized Price indicates the market as a whole is in profit and is thought of as a sell indicator (bearish).<\/p>\n<p>In contrast, an actual price below the Realized Price indicates the market as a whole is at loss and is thought of as a buy (or bottoming) indicator (bullish).<\/p>\n<p>On-chain analysis of Glassnode data revealed continuous extensive periods of the Realized Price below the actual price in the run-up to each respective halving go-live date.<\/p>\n<p>The first halving saw BTC below the Realized Price for 299 days before the next halving occurred some seven months later in July 2016.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_277938\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-277938\" style=\"width: 1487px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-277938 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/BTC1.jpg\" alt=\"Bitcoin Realized Price vs. Actual Price to June 2016\" width=\"1487\" height=\"831\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/BTC1.jpg 1487w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/BTC1-300x168.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/BTC1-1024x572.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/BTC1-768x429.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1487px) 100vw, 1487px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-277938\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Glassnode.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The second halving saw BTC below the Realized Price for 134 days (and again briefly in April 2020) before the next halving occurred approximately twelve months later in May 2020.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_278260\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-278260\" style=\"width: 1285px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-278260 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-10-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1285\" height=\"721\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-10-1.png 1285w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-10-1-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-10-1-1024x575.png 1024w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-10-1-768x431.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1285px) 100vw, 1285px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-278260\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Glassnode.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Counting down to the third halving, the Realized Price is currently below BTC and has been since 168 days ago. The actual price of BTC is currently below the Realized Price of $21,000, suggesting an upswing in the actual price on cards, as occurred in previous instances.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_277940\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-277940\" style=\"width: 1490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-277940 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/BTC3.jpg\" alt=\"Bitcoin Realized Price vs. Actual Price to November 2022\" width=\"1490\" height=\"831\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/BTC3.jpg 1490w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/BTC3-300x167.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/BTC3-1024x571.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/BTC3-768x428.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1490px) 100vw, 1490px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-277940\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Glassnode.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Bitcoin halving refers to an event where miners&#8217; block rewards are cut in half. This occurs roughly every four years, depending on when a total of 210,000 blocks have been mined from the previous halving go-live date. As a result, the number of new tokens entering circulation slows and fewer tokens enter the supply [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":460,"featured_media":278787,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[77921],"tags":[],"prediction_market_topic":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Research: Bitcoin halving pattern suggests price will cross above higher, realized value<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The countdown to the next halving is well over a year away but on-chain analysis suggests the Bitcoin price could revert higher, above its Realized Price.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/research-bitcoin-halving-pattern-suggests-price-will-cross-above-higher-realized-value\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Research: Bitcoin halving pattern suggests price will cross above higher, realized value\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The countdown to the next halving is well over a year away but on-chain analysis suggests the Bitcoin price could revert higher, above its Realized Price.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/research-bitcoin-halving-pattern-suggests-price-will-cross-above-higher-realized-value\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"CryptoSlate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-12-01T15:36:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/bitcoin-halving.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Samuel Wan\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cryptoslate\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cryptoslate\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Samuel Wan\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/research-bitcoin-halving-pattern-suggests-price-will-cross-above-higher-realized-value\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/research-bitcoin-halving-pattern-suggests-price-will-cross-above-higher-realized-value\/\"},\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/samuel-wan\/#person\",\"name\":\"Samuel Wan\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/samuel-wan\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/samuel-wan\/\"},\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/samuel-wan\/#authorimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/samuel-wan-author-300x300.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/samuel-wan-author-300x300.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Samuel Wan\"},\"jobTitle\":\"Analyst\",\"description\":\"Samuel Wan, a finance professional turned full-time crypto content creator, values individual autonomy and personal freedom in his pursuits.\",\"worksFor\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/#organization\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/x.com\/WanSamuel\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/james-van-straten\/#person\",\"name\":\"James Van Straten\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/james-van-straten\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/james-van-straten\/\"},\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/james-van-straten\/#authorimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/cryptoslate-james-van-straten-300x300.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/cryptoslate-james-van-straten-300x300.jpg\",\"caption\":\"James Van Straten\"},\"jobTitle\":\"Former Lead Analyst\",\"description\":\"James fervently appreciates data, technology, and trend-spotting. 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