Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has suggested a trustless, onchain futures market for gas to bring greater predictability to Ethereum transaction costs.
In a post on X over the weekend, Buterin said repeated questions about whether Ethereum’s roadmap can guarantee low fees inspired him to outline how such a market could work.
The concept mirrors traditional futures markets, such as those for commodities, where buyers and sellers agree on a fixed price for a future date to hedge risk or speculate on price movements. “People would get a clear signal of expectations for future gas fees, and would even be able to hedge against future gas prices,” Buterin wrote.
Buterin argued that an onchain gas futures system would give users the ability to lock in gas prices for future time windows, offering greater certainty as Ethereum scales.
Gas costs have eased this year, with basic Ethereum transfers averaging around 0.474 gwei, roughly one cent, according to Etherscan. Despite the overall decline, fee volatility remains a challenge. YCharts data shows average Ethereum fees started 2025 near $1 before falling to $0.30, punctuated by swings as high as $2.60 and as low as $0.18.
He suggested that a market-built signal for future base fees could help traders, developers, and heavy network users plan with far more confidence, especially those managing large volumes of transactions or operating decentralized applications.
The decline marks a 43% drop since July, a shift analysts say is tightening liquid supply and setting the stage for a potential market squeeze. The rapid drawdown is linked to structural changes in how ETH is being used. More tokens are flowing into staking, restaking protocols, layer-2 networks, DeFi collateral loops, digital-asset treasury holdings, and long-term self-custody, all destinations that rarely send ETH back to exchanges.
As reported, Ether held on centralized exchanges has dropped to an all-time low, with balances falling to just 8.7% of total supply, the smallest share since Ethereum launched in 2015.
