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The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has granted no-action relief to four prediction market operators, easing enforcement pressure on platforms that have faced mounting regulatory scrutiny.
In a notice published Thursday, the agency said it would not pursue action against Polymarket US, LedgerX, PredictIt and Gemini Titan, Gemini’s event-contracts arm, for failing to meet certain swap data reporting and record-keeping obligations, so long as they comply with a set of conditions outlined in the letters.
To qualify for continued relief, the platforms must fully collateralize all contracts, with reserves covering every position in full. These conditions aim to ensure transparency and mitigate counterparty risk, especially in markets that allow trading on outcomes ranging from sports to political events and cultural oddities.
The no-action letters do not change existing law but signal a willingness by regulators to give emerging prediction markets room to operate as they refine their compliance systems.
Kalshi recorded $5.14 billion in trading volume over the past 30 days, according to DefiLlama, while Polymarket registered $1.9 billion over the same period. Major crypto firms are also eyeing the space. Crypto.com has launched its own prediction market product, expected to integrate with Trump Media, and site code indicates Coinbase is exploring a similar offering.
Prediction markets fall under the CFTC’s jurisdiction as designated contract markets, triggering extensive reporting rules that many newer platforms have struggled to meet.
The decision allows DTC to begin tokenizing Treasuries, index ETFs and assets tied to the Russell 1000 starting in late 2026 on pre-approved blockchains. Such letters are uncommon, signalling strong regulatory confidence in the framework DTCC proposed and marking a broader shift in the SEC’s approach to blockchain infrastructure.
Yesterday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission also approved a major step toward blockchain-based securities markets by granting the Depository Trust Company, a DTCC subsidiary, a rare no-action letter.
