{"id":807,"date":"2026-02-16T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/tw\/?p=807"},"modified":"2026-02-15T13:27:01","modified_gmt":"2026-02-15T13:27:01","slug":"vitalik-buterin-warns-prediction-markets-are-becoming-overly-speculative","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/tw\/news\/vitalik-buterin-warns-prediction-markets-are-becoming-overly-speculative\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4ee5\u592a\u574a\u806f\u5408\u5275\u59cb\u4ebaV\u795e\u8b66\u544a\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u8b8a\u5f97\u904e\u5ea6\u6295\u6a5f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4ee5\u592a\u574a\u806f\u5408\u5275\u59cb\u4eba Vitalik Buterin \uff08V\u795e\uff09\u5c0d\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u73fe\u72c0\u8868\u9054\u4e86\u64d4\u6182\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u8a72\u884c\u696d\u6b63\u504f\u96e2\u5be6\u7528\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5de5\u5177\u5c6c\u6027\uff0c\u8f49\u800c\u8d70\u5411\u77ed\u671f\u535a\u5f69\u3002<\/p><p><strong>\u6838\u5fc3\u89c0\u9ede\uff1a<\/strong><\/p><ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>V\u795e\u8b66\u544a\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5411\u77ed\u671f\u6295\u6a5f\u548c\u535a\u5f69\u65b9\u5411\u504f\u79fb\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4ed6\u63d0\u8b70\u5229\u7528\u93c8\u4e0a\u5e02\u5834\u548c AI \u4f86\u5c0d\u6c96\u65e5\u5e38\u958b\u652f\u548c\u901a\u8139\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u652f\u6301\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0cPolymarket \u548c Kalshi \u7b49\u5e73\u53f0\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u70ba\u53bb\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5316\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u60c5\u5831\u4f86\u6e90\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul><p>\u5728 <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/VitalikButerin\/status\/2022669570788487542\">X \u5e73\u53f0\u6700\u8fd1\u767c\u5e03\u7684\u4e00\u689d\u5e16\u5b50<\/a>\u4e2d\uff0cV\u795e\u8868\u793a\u8a31\u591a\u5e73\u53f0\u904e\u65bc\u201c\u8da8\u540c\u201d\u65bc\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u50f9\u683c\u62bc\u6ce8\u548c\u6295\u6a5f\u4ea4\u6613\u70ba\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u7522\u54c1\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5be6\u969b\u61c9\u7528\u3002<\/p><p>\u4ed6\u8b66\u544a\u7a31\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u8da8\u52e2\u6709\u98a8\u96aa\u5c07\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u8b8a\u6210\u7d14\u7cb9\u7684\u8ced\u5834\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u652f\u6301\u73fe\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u898f\u5283\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\u3002<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Buterin \u8a8d\u70ba\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u61c9\u5f9e\u535a\u5f69\u8f49\u5411\u5c0d\u6c96<\/h2><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><p>V\u795e\u5efa\u8b70\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u61c9\u5c08\u6ce8\u65bc\u4e8b\u4ef6\u535a\u5f69\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u8ca1\u52d9\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u61c9\u6f14\u8b8a\u70ba\u65e8\u5728\u4fdd\u8b77\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u548c\u4f01\u696d\u514d\u53d7\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u52d5\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u5c0d\u6c96\u6a5f\u5236\u3002<\/p><p>\u4ed6\u52fe\u52d2\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5728\u8a72\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u93c8\u4e0a\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u8207\u5927\u8a9e\u8a00\u6a21\u578b (LLMs) \u5354\u540c\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/p><p>\u8a72\u7cfb\u7d71\u5c07\u8ddf\u8e64\u4e0d\u540c\u985e\u5225\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u670d\u52d9\uff08\u5982\u98df\u54c1\u3001\u4f4f\u623f\u6216\u4ea4\u901a\uff09\u7684\u5206\u5730\u5340\u50f9\u683c\u6307\u6578\u3002<\/p><p>\u7528\u6236\u7684\u500b\u4eba AI \u52a9\u624b\u5c07\u5206\u6790\u652f\u51fa\u7fd2\u6163\uff0c\u4e26\u69cb\u5efa\u4e00\u500b\u5b9a\u5236\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u982d\u5bf8\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u4ee3\u8868\u9810\u671f\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u958b\u652f\u3002<\/p><p>\u9019\u4e00\u69cb\u60f3\u65e8\u5728\u5e6b\u52a9\u5bb6\u5ead\u548c\u516c\u53f8\u62b5\u6d88\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3002\u500b\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u6301\u6709\u50b3\u7d71\u6295\u8cc7\u4ee5\u7372\u53d6\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4fdd\u7559\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u8207\u751f\u6d3b\u6210\u672c\u639b\u9264\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u4efd\u984d\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u4f5c\u70ba\u5c0d\u6297\u6cd5\u5e63\u901a\u8139\u7684\u7de9\u6c96\u3002<\/p><p>\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u5247\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8a72\u6280\u8853\u5728\u6295\u6a5f\u4e4b\u5916\u5df2\u7d93\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u3002<\/p><p>\u9019\u4e9b\u5e73\u53f0\u901a\u904e\u773e\u5305\u6536\u96c6\u5c0d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u8da8\u52e2\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u72c0\u6cc1\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u7522\u751f\u7684\u4fe1\u865f\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u54e1\u770b\u4f86\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ab2\u7f8e\u6c11\u8abf\u6578\u64da\u3002<\/p><blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014 vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/VitalikButerin\/status\/2022669570788487542?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 14, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote><p>Polymarket \u548c Kalshi \u7b49\u5e02\u5834\u901a\u904e\u63d0\u4f9b\u5c0d\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u53e6\u985e\u8996\u89d2\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u95dc\u6ce8\u3002<\/p><p>\u64c1\u8b77\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u53bb\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5316\u7684\u60c5\u5831\u4f86\u6e90\uff0c\u96e3\u4ee5\u88ab\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5316\u7684\u6558\u4e8b\u6240\u5851\u9020\u3002<\/p><p>\u57fa\u65bc\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u64d4\u6182\uff0c\u5404\u5dde\u5c0d\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5236\u7d04\u6b63\u5728\u589e\u5f37<br>\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u4f86\uff0c\u5dde\u653f\u5e9c\u5c0d\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u53cd\u5c0d\u60c5\u7dd2\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u5347\u6eab\u3002<\/p><p>2025 \u5e74\uff0cSWC \u6566\u4fc3 CFTC \u7981\u6b62\u9ad4\u80b2\u8cfd\u4e8b\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u7406\u7531\u662f\u6b64\u985e\u7522\u54c1\u7e5e\u904e\u4e86\u5e74\u9f61\u9a57\u8b49\u3001\u8cac\u4efb\u535a\u5f69\u898f\u5247\u548c\u53cd\u6d17\u9322\u8981\u6c42\u7b49\u5dde\u7d1a\u4fdd\u969c\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/p><p>\u64da\u5831\u9053\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u524d\u773e\u8b70\u9662\u8b70\u9577\u5357\u5e0c\u00b7\u4f69\u6d1b\u897f (Nancy Pelosi) \u5728\u5167\u7684 30 \u591a\u540d\u7f8e\u570b\u773e\u8b70\u9662\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u4eba\u6b63\u5728\u652f\u6301\u4e00\u9805\u65b0\u7acb\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ee5\u9650\u5236\u653f\u5e9c\u5b98\u54e1\u8207\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u4e92\u52d5\u3002<\/p><p>\u63a8\u884c\u65b0\u9650\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8a98\u56e0\u662f\u4e00\u9805\u6975\u5177\u722d\u8b70\u7684 Polymarket \u62bc\u6ce8\u3002\u8a72\u62bc\u6ce8\u6700\u521d\u50c5\u70ba 32,000 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u59d4\u5167\u745e\u62c9\u7e3d\u7d71\u5c3c\u53e4\u62c9\u65af\u00b7\u99ac\u675c\u7f85 (Nicol\u00e1s Maduro) \u610f\u5916\u88ab\u6355\u524d\u4e0d\u4e45\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u589e\u81f3\u8d85\u904e 400,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p><p>\u7531\u7d10\u7d04\u5dde\u773e\u8b70\u54e1 Richie Torres \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u8a72\u6cd5\u6848\u540d\u70ba\u300a2026 \u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u516c\u5171\u8aa0\u4fe1\u6cd5\u6848\u300b (Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026)\u3002<\/p><p>\u4e0a\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u96a8\u8457 Kalshi \u5728\u5168\u7f8e\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\u9762\u81e8\u5c0d\u5176\u7522\u54c1\u65e5\u76ca\u56b4\u683c\u7684\u5be9\u67e5\uff0c\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u7279\u5340\u958b\u8a2d\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u65b0\u8fa6\u516c\u5ba4\uff0c\u4ee5\u52a0\u5927\u904a\u8aaa\u529b\u5ea6\uff0c\u8a66\u5716\u5f71\u97ff\u806f\u90a6\u548c\u5dde\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p><p>\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u9084\u8058\u8acb\u4e86\u8cc7\u6df1\u653f\u6cbb\u6230\u7565\u5bb6 John Bivona \u64d4\u4efb\u5176\u9996\u4efb\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u95dc\u7cfb\u8ca0\u8cac\u4eba\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4ee5\u592a\u574a\u806f\u5408\u5275\u59cb\u4eba Vitalik Buterin \uff08V\u795e\uff09\u5c0d\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u73fe\u72c0\u8868\u9054\u4e86\u64d4\u6182\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u8a72\u884c\u696d\u6b63\u504f\u96e2\u5be6\u7528\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5de5\u5177\u5c6c\u6027\uff0c\u8f49\u800c\u8d70\u5411\u77ed\u671f\u535a\u5f69\u3002\u6838\u5fc3\u89c0\u9ede\uff1a\u5728 X \u5e73\u53f0\u6700\u8fd1\u767c\u5e03\u7684\u4e00\u689d\u5e16\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0cV\u795e\u8868\u793a\u8a31\u591a\u5e73\u53f0\u904e\u65bc\u201c\u8da8\u540c\u201d\u65bc\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u50f9\u683c\u62bc\u6ce8\u548c\u6295\u6a5f\u4ea4\u6613\u70ba\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u7522\u54c1\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5be6\u969b\u61c9\u7528\u3002\u4ed6\u8b66\u544a\u7a31\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u8da8\u52e2\u6709\u98a8\u96aa\u5c07\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u8b8a\u6210\u7d14\u7cb9\u7684\u8ced\u5834\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u652f\u6301\u73fe\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u898f\u5283\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\u3002Buterin \u8a8d\u70ba\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u61c9\u5f9e\u535a\u5f69\u8f49\u5411\u5c0d\u6c96V\u795e\u5efa\u8b70\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u61c9\u5c08\u6ce8\u65bc\u4e8b\u4ef6\u535a\u5f69\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u8ca1\u52d9\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u61c9\u6f14\u8b8a\u70ba\u65e8\u5728\u4fdd\u8b77\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u548c\u4f01\u696d\u514d\u53d7\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u52d5\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u5c0d\u6c96\u6a5f\u5236\u3002\u4ed6\u52fe\u52d2\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5728\u8a72\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u93c8\u4e0a\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u8207\u5927\u8a9e\u8a00\u6a21\u578b (LLMs) \u5354\u540c\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u8a72\u7cfb\u7d71\u5c07\u8ddf\u8e64\u4e0d\u540c\u985e\u5225\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u670d\u52d9\uff08\u5982\u98df\u54c1\u3001\u4f4f\u623f\u6216\u4ea4\u901a\uff09\u7684\u5206\u5730\u5340\u50f9\u683c\u6307\u6578\u3002\u7528\u6236\u7684\u500b\u4eba AI \u52a9\u624b\u5c07\u5206\u6790\u652f\u51fa\u7fd2\u6163\uff0c\u4e26\u69cb\u5efa\u4e00\u500b\u5b9a\u5236\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u982d\u5bf8\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u4ee3\u8868\u9810\u671f\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u958b\u652f\u3002\u9019\u4e00\u69cb\u60f3\u65e8\u5728\u5e6b\u52a9\u5bb6\u5ead\u548c\u516c\u53f8\u62b5\u6d88\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3002\u500b\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u6301\u6709\u50b3\u7d71\u6295\u8cc7\u4ee5\u7372\u53d6\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4fdd\u7559\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u8207\u751f\u6d3b\u6210\u672c\u639b\u9264\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u4efd\u984d\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u4f5c\u70ba\u5c0d\u6297\u6cd5\u5e63\u901a\u8139\u7684\u7de9\u6c96\u3002\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u5247\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8a72\u6280\u8853\u5728\u6295\u6a5f\u4e4b\u5916\u5df2\u7d93\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u5e73\u53f0\u901a\u904e\u773e\u5305\u6536\u96c6\u5c0d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u8da8\u52e2\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u72c0\u6cc1\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u7522\u751f\u7684\u4fe1\u865f\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u54e1\u770b\u4f86\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ab2\u7f8e\u6c11\u8abf\u6578\u64da\u3002 Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":808,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[38,43,45],"editors":[98],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ethereum-news","tag-yi-tai-fang","tag-jia-mi-huo-bi","tag-qu-kuai-lian","editors-amanda-wong"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u4ee5\u592a\u574a\u806f\u5408\u5275\u59cb\u4ebaV\u795e\u8b66\u544a\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u8b8a\u5f97\u904e\u5ea6\u6295\u6a5f<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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