Welcome to Trade Secrets — Bitcoin and Ether price predictions from top analysts, along with options data, sentiment analysis and prediction markets to determine what they can tell us about the months and years ahead.
Bitcoin analysts are divided on price action before 2026
As Bitcoin’s price hovers around the $86,000 level, analysts are split on where the world’s largest cryptocurrency will land by year-end.
Institutional buying for Bitcoin will need to increase over “the next week or so” to see any meaningful movement in the price by Dec. 31, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards tells Magazine.
But Edwards declares that he is “leaning bullish.”
Over the past five trading days, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $286.6 million in net inflows, according to Farside. While that’s a significant increase compared to the previous trading week, Bitcoin’s price is significantly below where many market participants had expected it to be at this point in the year.
Bitcoin is trading at $86,060 at the time of publication, after reaching a new high of $125,100 on Oct. 5. As recently as October, some analysts, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine chair Tom Lee, were forecasting year-end prices as high as $250,000 which is looking incredibly.
Trading platform XS senior market analyst Linh Tan tells Magazine that Bitcoin is “facing negative pressure from the broader global financial landscape.”
“Concerns surrounding earnings prospects for technology stocks and rising investment spending in the AI sector, combined with year-end portfolio rebalancing, have pushed capital toward a more defensive stance,” Tan says, adding that these macro conditions tend to lead investors to be more cautious with high-volatility assets, leaving Bitcoin more vulnerable to further corrections or prolonged consolidation.
Japan’s central bank is expected to hike interest rates on Dec. 19, which has been previously associated with Bitcoin prices falls of around 20%.
Bitcoin may face a “double bottom retest” as a Christmas present
While bearish sentiment toward Bitcoin has been rising on social media in recent weeks, some argue that it may be driven by self-interest rather than genuine worry. Jan3 founder Samson Mow said, “They are bear posting to scare you into submission and selling.”
“Everyone wants your Bitcoin,” Mow said.
Stablecoin issuer Stabolut co-founder and CEO Eneko Knorr says Bitcoin needs to remain above $82,500 to avoid a harsher year-end outcome. “If that gives way, you’re looking at a deeper correction toward the mid $70Ks,” Knorr tells Magazine.
MN Trading Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin must hold its current price level or it will “likely” lead to a “double bottom retest as a Christmas present.”
In comments to Magazine, TEN protocol co-founder Cais Manai pointed to several downside risks, including “hawkish policy surprises, regulatory friction, weakening ETF inflows, and forced selling by large holders.”
Ether is “not done” yet and a surge toward ATH still possible: Analyst
Ether may still have room to run despite trading below $3,000, according to popular crypto analyst Crypto With James, who says a near-term move back toward all-time highs remains on the table.
“I don’t think it is done in all honesty,” Crypto With James said in a YouTube video, noting that Ether would need to rally roughly 60% from current levels to reclaim its all-time high of $4,878, which he said is “very achievable for Ethereum.”
Ether is trading at $2,943 at the time of publication, down 6.28% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
Crypto With James pointed to reasons why he is staying bullish, such as Ethereum recently being included in the US CFTC’s pilot program for derivatives and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin proposing an onchain gas futures market.
Meanwhile, spot Ether ETFs are picking up again, with $209.1 million in net inflows over the past five trading days, according to Farside.
Some analysts say it’s still too early to call Ether’s next move.
Crypto analyst Jelle said Ether holding above $2,900 is a positive sign, as the price remains above a “key support area.”
Jelle said that $4,000 was the key hurdle to clear. “Above there, price discovery awaits.”
However, December has not typically been a significant month for Ether. Ether has averaged a 5.96% return in December each year since 2013, according to CoinGlass.
Bitcoin holders’ expectations were not met after Fed cut: Santiment
Bitcoin holders’ high hopes fell short following the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision this month, according to crypto sentiment platform Santiment.
“While there was a brief initial jump, prices quickly fell, catching hopeful investors off guard,” Santiment said in a recent report.
Santiment explained that the market reaction following the Fed’s rate cut was a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction.
“Many retail traders anticipated a price surge after the rate cut was confirmed. This pattern is common, where the market prices-in an expected event before it happens,” Santiment said.
Crypto market indicators signal growing caution among investors
The Fed ended up cutting rates to 3.5% – 3.75%, however market participants aren’t very confident the agency will do the same in January 2026.
The probability of a rate cut in January currently stands at 22.1%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, is reading an “Extreme Fear” score of 11, after almost getting out of the fear region altogether when it registered a “Fear” score of 29 on Dec. 12 after Bitcoin almost reclaimed $95,000.
More broadly, crypto market participants remain cautious and risk-averse, with CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index at 22 out of 100.
The index alternates between “Altcoin Season” and “Bitcoin Season” based on the relative performance of the top 100 altcoins versus Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
What the predictions markets are saying?
Prediction markets are leaning toward caution as we approach the final days of 2025, with Bitcoin remaining below $90,000 and most major altcoins significantly below its all-time highs reached earlier this year.
Bitcoin almost reached $95,000 on Dec. 9, but it has since retraced back down to $86,060 at the time of publication, and it has a 40% chance of ending the year at $80,000, according to crypto prediction platform Polymarket.
The odds of Bitcoin ending the year at $95,000 are sitting at 27%.
Unfortunately for the million-dollar Bitcoin hopefuls, the odds are less than 1% with two weeks to go.
Solana currently has a 74% probability of ending the year 4% below its current price, at approximately $120.
Meanwhile, Ether has a 1% chance of reclaiming its all-time high of $4,878 by Dec. 31.
Ciaran Lyons
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