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狗狗币跌破支撑位，年终抛售将DOGE拖至0.123美元
未平仓合约金额突破15亿美元，显示期货交易者持续持有敞口。
需要了解的:
- 随着年底的抛售压力突破了关键支撑位，狗狗币下跌了3%，至0.1226美元。
- 鲸鱼钱包分发了1.5亿DOGE，尽管处于超卖状态，仍限制了价格的反弹。
- 未平仓合约总额突破15亿美元，显示期货交易者持续持仓的态势。
受年底抛售压力影响，狗狗币下跌3%，至0.1226美元，该代币跌破了关键支撑区，令该表情包币持续徘徊于十二月下行趋势的低位。
DOGE 在本交易时段最活跃的交易窗口跌破了 $0.1248，成交量约为平均水平的 157% —— 这表明此次下跌并非流动性不足所致的漂移，而是由积极的卖盘推动的真实突破。
故事继续
此次下跌延续了定义了 DOGE 本月走势的更广泛的看跌结构，卖方多次利用反弹来降低敞口并防守较低的高点水平。
新闻背景
- 此举正值年终持仓调整持续影响高贝塔加密资产之时，假期期间流动性趋紧，投资者则在缩减风险敞口。
- DOGE 同样面临来自大额持有者的供应压力：鲸鱼钱包在过去五天内分散了约 1.5 亿代币，尽管价格在区间低点徘徊，但现货价格涨幅依然受限。
- 与此同时，衍生品仓位保持活跃。
- 未平仓合约金额重新攀升至15亿美元以上，表明尽管现货市场情绪趋于防御，期货交易者仍愿意在2025年继续持有敞口。
- 这种背离——持续的杠杆作用对抗疲弱的现货结构——往往会使波动性保持在较高水平，尤其是在市场情绪本已脆弱的情况下。
技术分析
- DOGE跌破0.1248美元是技术转折点。该水平一直作为短期盘整的支撑位，一旦被突破，市场迅速转向0.122–0.123美元的需求区间。
- 此次下跌得到了成交量的确认，约有8.57亿DOGE在关键的下跌阶段被交易。这与分发阶段的特征相符，而非缓慢的逐步下跌，这也解释了为何反弹难以持续：在每次回升至0.1270美元附近时，卖盘始终存在。
- 从结构角度来看，DOGE 依然被困在连续形成更低高点的下降通道中。动能处于拉伸状态——相对强弱指数（RSI）约为37点，显示超卖状况——但仅凭超卖信号尚不足以扭转趋势，尤其是在流动性不足且卖压持续的十二月底盘面中。
价格走势摘要
- DOGE 在放量下跌后跌破 $0.1248 支撑位，跌至 $0.1226
- 0.1270 美元现标志着下跌后的首个阻力位
- 鲸鱼钱包在五天内分发了约1.5亿DOGE，限制了涨势
- 尽管现货结构走弱，未平仓合约兴趣仍重建至超过15亿美元
交易者应了解的事项
交易现已变得明朗：DOGE 正处于其下一个决策点上。
- 如果 $0.1226 价位支撑有效且价格迅速回升至 $0.1248，此走势很可能形成另一次区间内反弹，回升至约 $0.1270。这将符合近期在上方供应压力下未能持续的空头回补反弹模式。
- 如果 $0.1226 失守，下一个下行支撑点位于约 $0.118 附近，该处汇聚了先前的需求区和下行通道下边界。在此情形下，任何反弹回升至 $0.1248 的动作很可能会被视为阻力，除非现货成交量能明确由卖方主导转为买方主导。
目前，行情显示出供给压力下的跌破——由于年底流动性依然薄弱，下一个明确的支撑位突破可能会比平时更快。
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