Share this article
Lesser-Known Bitcoin Indicator Signals Onset of Major Bull Run
The "reserve-risk" indicator has been historically reliable.
Updated Apr 18, 2023, 7:41 p.m. Published Apr 18, 2023, 9:26 a.m.
A lesser-known but historically reliable bitcoin price indicator has flipped positive, signaling the onset of a major bull market.
Bitcoin's (BTC) reserve-risk multiple has crossed above zero, turning positive for the first time since October 2021, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
The previous crossovers above zero paved the way for parabolic price rallies. "In 2012, 2013, 2015, 2019 and 2020, it resulted in gains of 2,830%, 566%, 6,400%, 99% and 487%, respectively," on-chain analyst Ali Martinez tweeted Monday.
Glassnode defines reserve risk as a long-term cyclical indicator, comparing the incentive to sell at the going market price with long-term holders resisting the temptation to liquidate. A lower reading indicates strong conviction among "HODLers" – slang for long-term crypto investors – and vice versa.
The reserve-risk multiple is calculated by dividing the daily indicator value by its 365-day moving average.
The reserve-risk multiple's previous crossovers above and below zero accurately predicted major bullish and bearish trends.
If history is a guide, the latest positive crossover means the cryptocurrency's 80% year-to-date rally to 10-month highs above $30,000 may be only the first milestone in its upward journey.
The bullish implication is consistent with bitcoin's tendency to chalk up outsized rallies in the months leading up to the mining reward halving. This programmed code reduces the pace of the cryptocurrency's supply expansion by 50% every four years. Bitcoin's fourth reward halving is due in April next year.
More For You
What to know:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
More For You
Coinbase Reopens India Signups, Targets Fiat On-Ramp in 2026 After Two-Year Freeze
Coinbase halted services entirely in 2023, off-boarded millions of Indian users and shuttered local access while reassessing regulatory exposure.
What to know:
- Coinbase has resumed onboarding users in India, marking its return to the market after a two-year hiatus due to regulatory issues.
- The exchange is currently allowing crypto-to-crypto trading and plans to reintroduce fiat on-ramps next year.
- Despite regulatory challenges, Coinbase is investing in India, including increasing its stake in local exchange CoinDCX.
Top Stories
