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Norwegian Officials Probe Major Polymarket Bets on Nobel Peace Winner
A trader with a new account and no prior betting history placed a $70,000 bet on Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado winning the prize.
Oct 11, 2025, 2:27 p.m.
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What to know:
- Norwegian officials are investigating a potential leak of the Nobel Peace Prize winner after large bets were placed on Polymarket.
- A trader with a new account and no prior betting history placed a $70,000 bet on Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado winning the prize, earning a $30,000 profit.
- The Nobel committee is reviewing the situation, with the director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute stating that they "take this very seriously" and believe they may have been the victim of a criminal actor.
Norwegian officials are investigating a potential leak after large bets were placed on the Nobel Peace Prize outcome on Polymarket just hours before it became public.
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her role in the fight for democracy, saw a spike in bets on her victory on the prediction markets hours before the official announcement, Bloomberg reported.
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The spike was so notable that Polymarket’s official account posted on social media about it.
A trader using the handle “dirtycup” placed a near $70,000 bet on Machado and walked away with about $30,000 in profit, without adding any other type of exposure. The account had been opened only weeks earlier and had no prior betting history, according to Polymarket data.
Two other accounts also focused solely on Machado and earned a combined $90,000, local Norwegian outlet Finansavisen reported.
“We take this very seriously,” said Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute. “It seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information.”
While the Nobel Peace Prize selection process is known for its secrecy, the committee had reportedly made its decision days earlier. The committee is now reviewing the situation.
Polymarket allows users to bet on real-world events, from elections to celebrity gossip. Its founder, Shayne Coplan, became the world’s youngest self-made billionaire after the firm saw $2 billion investment from the owner of the New York Stock Exchange.
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