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Asia Morning Briefing: Fragility or Back on Track? BTC Holds the Line at $115K
Competing narratives emerge as Glassnode points to profit-taking risks and weak spot demand, while QCP highlights ETF inflows and rotation into higher-beta assets.
By Sam Reynolds
Updated Sep 16, 2025, 2:15 a.m. Published Sep 16, 2025, 1:34 a.m.
What to know:
- Bitcoin is consolidating around $115,000 as traders anticipate U.S. Federal Reserve policy changes, with institutional demand via spot ETFs providing support.
- Glassnode and QCP are divided on Bitcoin's outlook, with Glassnode highlighting market fragility and QCP seeing momentum from ETF inflows.
- The Nikkei 225 reached a record high, driven by positive U.S.-China trade talks and a TikTok divestment framework.
Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin traded just above $115k in Asia Tuesday morning, slipping slightly after a strong start to the week.
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The modest pullback followed a run of inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and lingering optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week. The moves left traders divided: is this recovery built on fragile foundations, or is crypto firmly back on track after last week’s CPI-driven jitters?
That debate is playing out across research desks. Glassnode’s weekly pulse emphasizes fragility. While ETF inflows surged nearly 200% last week and futures open interest jumped, the underlying spot market looks weak.
Buying conviction remains shallow, Glassnode writes, funding rates have softened, and profit-taking is on the rise with more than 92% of supply in profit.
Options traders have also scaled back downside hedges, pushing volatility spreads lower, which Glassnode warns leaves the market exposed if risk returns. The core message: ETFs and futures are supporting the rally, but without stronger spot flows, BTC remains vulnerable.
QCP takes the other side.
The Singapore-based desk says crypto is “back on track” after CPI confirmed tariff-led inflation without major surprises. They highlight five consecutive days of sizeable BTC ETF inflows, ETH’s biggest inflow in two weeks, and strength in XRP and SOL even after ETF delays.
Traders, they argue, are interpreting regulatory postponements as inevitability rather than rejection. With the Altcoin Season Index at a 90-day high, QCP sees BTC consolidation above $115k as the launchpad for rotation into higher-beta assets.
The divide underscores how Bitcoin’s current range near $115k–$116k is a battleground. Glassnode calls it fragile optimism; QCP calls it momentum. Which side is right may depend on whether ETF inflows keep offsetting profit-taking in the weeks ahead.
Market Movement
BTC: Bitcoin is consolidating near the $115,000 level as traders square positions ahead of expected U.S. Fed policy moves; institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs is supporting upside
ETH: ETH is trading near $4500 in a key resistance band; gains are being helped by renewed institutional demand, tightening supply (exchange outflows), and positive technical setups.
Gold: Gold continues to hold near record highs, underpinned by expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, inflation risk, and investor demand for safe havens; gains tempered somewhat by profit‑taking and a firmer U.S. dollar
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 topped 45,000 for the first time Monday, leading Asia-Pacific gains as upbeat U.S.-China trade talks and a TikTok divestment framework lifted sentiment.
S&P 500: The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to close above 6,600 for the first time on Monday as upbeat U.S.-China trade talks and anticipation of a Fed meeting lifted stocks.
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KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
What to know:
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
- Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
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Yang perlu diketahui:
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