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Bitcoin Bulls Beware, South Korean Kospi Setting Record Highs Could Stop BTC's Bull Run: Analyst
Alphractal called Kospi's record high an incremental signal that bitcoin's bull run may be nearing an end.
Sep 11, 2025, 6:02 a.m.
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What to know:
- South Korea's Kospi index has reached a record high of 4,340 points, driven by shareholder-friendly policies and positive global market sentiment.
- Alphractal called Kospi's record high an incremental signal that bitcoin's bull run may be nearing an end.
- The relationship between Kospi and bitcoin highlights their shared sensitivity to global risk sentiment and macroeconomic conditions.
South Korea's benchmark equity index, the Kospi, has reached a record high of 4,340 points, driven by prospects of shareholder-friendly policies and positive global market sentiment.
The new high has prompted one analyst to urge caution among bitcoin bulls, suggesting that the surging Kospi could mark the end of the BTC bull run, consistent with the historical relation between the two assets.
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"Every time the Kospi has set a new record high, Bitcoin was trading close to its all-time high of the cycle. The last time this happened was back in 2021," crypto analytics platform Alphractal said on X.
The chart indicates that the Kospi reached its peak in the second half of 2021. BTC also peaked closer to $70,000 in November that year, eventually falling into a year-long bear market.
A similar pattern emerged in late 2017, with concurrent peaks in the two assets. Also note the concurrent interim tops around June and July 2011.
Incremental signal
The pattern, though limited to support definitive conclusions, warrants attention, as it underscores the shared sensitivity of Kospi and BTC to global risk-on/risk-off flows and shifts in investor risk appetite and macroeconomic conditions.
When risk sentiment is positive, capital flows into emerging market equities, such as the Kospi, which is heavily export-oriented and influenced by global trade dynamics, as well as into riskier assets like bitcoin.
Conversely, during periods of heightened uncertainty or risk aversion, both tend to decline together. This close relationship highlights how Bitcoin, despite its unique characteristics as a digital asset, is becoming increasingly intertwined with broader financial markets and subject to similar economic forces.
"Now that the Kospi has reached a new all-time high, it serves as yet another incremental signal that the bitcoin cycle may be nearing its conclusion. Smart money flows continuously between major economies, stores of value, risk assets, and—sometimes—extremely speculative instruments, like memecoins, often without fundamentals," Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, said.
Read more: Dogecoin Leads Gain, Bitcoin Pops to $114K as M2 Setup Opens BTC Catchup Trade
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Small investors are buying bitcoin. For a rally to succeed, the whales need to join in.
Small wallets have increased their BTC holdings by 2.5% since October's all-time high while large holders trimmed 0.8%, Santiment data shows.
What to know:
- Bitcoin wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC have increased their share of supply to the highest since mid-2024 even as the price holds around the mid-$60,000s.
- Larger holders with 10 to 10,000 bitcoins — the whales and sharks that typically drive major moves — have reduced their positions since the October peak.
- The divergence supports choppy, fragile price action because retail demand alone cannot sustain rallies when big wallets are distributing into every recovery.
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