Share this article
Crypto Speculation Index Slide Suggests Bitcoin Bull Market Reset
Key gauge shows that the speculative forth prevalent during the first quarter has dissipated.
Updated Jul 11, 2024, 11:04 a.m. Published Jul 11, 2024, 11:04 a.m.
- Key gauge shows that the speculative forth prevalent during the first quarter has dissipated.
- Speculative washouts mean a healthier market and a potential for a renewed uptick in bitcoin.
Bull markets are observed to stall during periods of excessive optimism, only to resume after the speculative froth has been cleared.
Capriole Investment's crypto speculation index shows that the speculative excesses prevalent during the first quarter have dissipated, indicating a potential for a renewed bullish price action in bitcoin , the leading cryptocurrency by market value.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
The speculation index, which measures the percentage of alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) with 90-day returns greater than bitcoin, has stabilized below 10%, down significantly from the January high of nearly 60%. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market, hit new record highs above $70,000 in the first quarter and has since cooled to $58,000.
As of this writing, more than 14,800 altcoins exist, according to data source Coingecko. Most of these coins are illiquid and struggle to prove their use cases. Hence, altcoins are generally seen as speculative instruments, with volumes closely tied to Google Trends, an indicator of retail investor interest, and altcoin outperformance relative to BTC is seen as a sign of speculative mania.
Speculative washouts serve as corrective mechanisms, helping realign asset prices with fundamentals and tempering excessive speculation. Thus, they set the stage for a healthier environment in the long run.
That has been the case in the crypto market. Since 2019, a below-10% speculation index has coincided with the beginnings of sharp bitcoin rallies, as observed in the first half of 2019, late 2020, and the second half of 2023.
More For You
What to know:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
More For You
Ethereum’s P2P Layer Is Improving Just as Institutional ETH Buys Pick Up
Early PeerDAS performance is proof that the Ethereum Foundation can now ship complex networking improvements at scale.
What to know:
- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said that the network is addressing its lack of peer-to-peer networking expertise, highlighting the progress of PeerDAS.
- PeerDAS, a prototype for Data Availability Sampling, is crucial for Ethereum's scalability and decentralization through sharding.
- BitMine Immersion Technologies has significantly increased its Ethereum holdings, viewing it as a strategic investment in the network's future scaling capabilities.
Top Stories
