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Vibe Check: Ether Finds Support: CoinDesk Indices' Todd Groth
Periodic observations and market musings from Todd Groth, Head of Research, CoinDesk Indices.
Support in the ether.
It looks like we’ve hit a decent level of support for ether as we hug the $2,200 level and, coincidentally, the 38 Fibonacci retracement level - one of the indicators traders use to gauge potential price stall or reversal.
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As we wait for more constructive price trends to re-emerge within the market, it’s a good time to check in on the macro environment. While we’ve recently seen an uptick in interest rates (10-year currently at 4.12%), the longer-term trend lower, for real rates, is still supportive for digital assets, especially the smaller-cap altcoins contained within the CoinDesk 20 Index- a benchmark that tracks top cryptocurrencies.
So how did the crypto options market price in the bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) launch? From a quick ex-post analysis of option implied vs subsequent realized volatility (see below), expectations in the markets have subsided after the event, and it looks like the bitcoin options market gang correctly priced in the market reaction while team ether options were asleep behind the wheel w.r.t. the rally in ETH post bitcoin spot ETF launch.
Bitcoin options have been more efficiently priced over the period, too. Perhaps team ether got too fat and happy off of collecting that implied vs. realized premium spread?
Need more color on what's happening in the markets? Check out these stories:
- Bitcoin ETF Flows Show Negative Trend For First Time Since Launch:Outflows at Grayscale’s GBTC have remained high while inflows for the other funds as a group have slowed.
- ETH ETFs Are Inevitable — But When?:As the SEC delays applications from Grayscale and BlackRock, here is a look at how soon the Securities and Exchange Commission might approve these investment products.
- Many Retail Investors See Bitcoin Price Dropping Below $20K by Year End: Deutsche Bank:More of those surveyed said they expect bitcoin to disappear than those who said they expect it to continue to exist, the bank said.
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Bilinmesi gerekenler:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
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Crypto Markets Today: Bitcoin Slips Back Toward Danger Zone Ahead of Fed Decision
Bitcoin surrendered gains from earlier in the week, fell back toward $90,000 as traders braced for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate decision.
Bilinmesi gerekenler:
- A 25 basis-point interest-rate cut has been priced in for weeks, and risk assets could drop on the news if no fresh catalysts emerge.
- Tokens like HYPE, STRK, QNT and KAS fell 6%–9% in 24 hours
- CoinMarketCap’s altcoin-season index sits at a cycle low of 18/100.
- Bitcoin is down 20% over 90 days and more than half of the top-100 tokens have fallen at least 40%. FET and TIA are among the worst performers while ZEC, DASH, BNB and BCH stand out as rare stabilizers.
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