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Goldman Sachs Sees Fed Delivering First Rate Cut in Q3 2024: Reuters
The Fed's benchmark interest-rate range is currently 5.25% to 5.5%.
Updated Mar 8, 2024, 6:29 p.m. Published Dec 11, 2023, 9:28 a.m.
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Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs brought forward its estimate for the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut to third-quarter 2024 from a previous forecast of the fourth quarter, Reuters reported Monday.
The shift comes as bitcoin [BTC] and the broader crypto market has surged in recent weeks on a bullish cocktail of an expected spot ETF launch in the U.S., the impending Bitcoin mining reward halving and the decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, the so-called risk-free rate.
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The Fed's benchmark interest rate is currently 5.25% to 5.5%, with traders of the Fed funds futures anticipating a decline to a range starting at 4% by the end of the next year.
When interest rates drop, borrowing becomes cheaper, spurring risk-taking in the economy and financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. The opposite happens when rates rise rapidly, as observed in 2022.
The Fed kicked off its tightening cycle in March 2022 to tame inflation, raising rates from as low as 0%-0.25% with the most recent increase occurring in July. The rapid rise in borrowing costs weighed on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, last year.
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Mike McGlone softens bitcoin downside target to $28,000 after backlash over $10,000 call
Market analysts said the extreme downside scenario risked influencing real capital flows, prompting a heated public debate over bitcoin’s macro outlook.
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- Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone has shifted his bitcoin downside target from $10,000 to about $28,000 after criticism that his earlier call was alarmist and risky for investors.
- McGlone now argues that $28,000 is a more probable level based on historical price distribution and maintains that his analysis shows why investors should avoid bitcoin and other risk assets.
- Critics including Jason Fernandes and Mati Greenspan say the revised $28,000 target is still unlikely or overly deterministic, warning that such stark forecasts can distort positioning and put real capital at risk in reflexive crypto markets.
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