Why Fundamentals Need Context

Solana’s ecosystem sectors are underperforming SOL despite strong narratives. Meanwhile, EtherFi’s “neobank” thesis faces valuation compression, and Ore’s recent move highlights why context matters.

Updated Oct 30, 2025, 5:16 p.m. Published Oct 30, 2025, 5:00 p.m.
Why Fundamentals Need Context Image

What to know:

  • Most Solana ecosystem sectors have underperformed SOL over the past 90 days.
  • DEX volumes stagnated since Q3 2025, while average FDV-to-revenue ratios compressed.
  • EtherFi’s neobank card usage tops $1M/day, but heavy unlocks (~$1M/day) add persistent sell pressure.
  • Over 90% of EtherFi’s revenue still comes from restaking, limiting valuation support.
  • Ore’s PoW mining upgrade added SOL-funded buybacks (90% burn / 10% staker rewards), making emissions net negative.
  • Ore has risen to 7th in Solana network revenue, outperforming peers like Pump and Meteora.
  • Context - not cheap multiples - explains relative performance. Fundamentals justify moves but rarely anchor them.

When Fundamentals Lag Price

Over the past 90 days, most sectors within the Solana ecosystem have underperformed SOL itself.

Solana Sector/SOL Performance Index: 90 days Chart
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Source: dashboards.wtf

DEX volumes across Solana have stagnated since early Q3 2025. At the same time, average FDV-to-revenue ratios for Solana DEXs have compressed - reflecting a market that’s repricing in line with muted fundamentals. If valuations aren’t cheap relative to growth or usage, there’s little basis for sector-level outperformance versus SOL.

Beyond Solana: EtherFi and the "Neobank" Meta

The same logic applies outside Solana. EtherFi, a leading player in the “neobank” meta, has seen solid traction - with daily card spend volumes averaging around $1 million.

Yet, its token (ETHFI) has fallen roughly 66% versus BTC over the past year, largely due to heavy unlock schedules, with around $1 million worth of ETHFI unlocking daily.

That translates to ~1% of its daily volume, as per CoinDesk Data - generating a persistent source of sell pressure. Even assuming a 1% take rate on card activity, EtherFi’s implied annualized card revenue is just $3.6 million before accounting for cashback incentives.

In other words, the fundamentals don’t justify price resilience - especially when the core revenue stream remains restaking-related (restaking still accounts for >90% of Ether.fi’s revenue). If investors aren’t bullish on that segment, a lower price-to-revenue ratio alone doesn’t make the token “cheap.” In other words, context is what gives fundamental metrics meaning.

When Fundamentals Do Align

Contrast this with Ore, a proof-of-work-style protocol on Solana that has climbed to 7th place in network revenue, according to DefiLlama. Ore launched as a fair-launch experiment in 2024, letting users earn ORE tokens by solving lightweight on-chain hash puzzles - mimicking the fairness of PoW mining but without the energy cost. The initial version was purely inflationary and contributed to network congestion on Solana.

Solana Protocol Revenue Table

Source: DefiLlama

The protocol recently updated its mining mechanism, introducing a reward pool that distributes SOL from each mining round into automatic ORE buybacks - with 90% of the purchased tokens burned and 10% distributed to stakers. Each round functions like a mini lottery, where miners compete to solve puzzles for variable rewards. This has boosted activity and hence revenue - which more or less fits within Solana’s ‘gambling meta’ i.e. a reflexive system betting on speculation.

Comparing Ore v/s other ‘gambling meta’ proxies, it screens well - with lower multiples relative to peers like Pump and Meteora (i.e. the other tokenized plays that act as memecoin beta proxies on Solana) on an FDV-to-revenue basis.

Moreover, Ore’s emission-to-buyback ratio is net negative, meaning buy pressure exceeds dilution. Here, fundamentals actually explain outperformance, providing a rational basis for the token’s rally.

Context Matters

Valuation ratios alone rarely explain performance. Once token unlocks, revenue mix, and emission mechanics are considered, sector-level underperformance versus base tokens like SOL looks justified.

Even when fundamentals do align with price action - as in Ore’s case - sustainability is another question. The relatively recent “gambling meta” led by Pokémon TCG’s CARDS peaked near $700M FDV before fading within a month. Similarly more recently gambling/flywheel driven plays like PNKSTR (play on NFTs) peaked at ~$300m FDV within a few weeks of gaining traction, showing how short-lived these rotations can be.

In essence, context helps explain performance but doesn’t ensure it lasts. Fundamentals can justify a move, but they rarely anchor it - especially when momentum and meta shifts dominate market structure.