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Tuesdays Have Been Bitcoin's Most Volatile Day in 2025

Market participants anticipate heightened activity, influenced by global economic trends.

Updated Mar 18, 2025, 1:24 p.m. Published Mar 18, 2025, 1:08 p.m.
Realized Volatility Day of Week (Amberdata)
Realized Volatility Day of Week (Amberdata)

What to know:

  • Bitcoin has experienced its highest realized volatility on Tuesdays throughout 2025.
  • March has also been the most volatile month since the start of 2024.

In case you haven't looked, it's Tuesday. For bitcoin traders, that could mean some big price swings.

According to Amberdata, Tuesdays have been the most volatile day of the week thus far in 2025, particularly over the past month, where realized volatility has averaged 82.

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Realized volatility measures the standard deviation of returns from the market’s mean return, reflecting past price fluctuations. In contrast, implied volatility represents the market’s expectations of future price swings.

Amberdata also looked at monthly volatility and since the start of 2024, March has had the highest at 67.

Amid bitcoin’s recent 30% drawdown from its all-time high, its one-month annualized daily realized volatility nearly hit 70 versus an average of about 50. The only two other instances of similar volatility spikes occurred in March 2024, following another run to a record high (then $73,000), and in August 2024, during the yen carry trade unwind, according to Glassnode data.

BTC: Annualized realized volatility (Glassnode)
BTC: Annualized realized volatility (Glassnode)

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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McGlone links bitcoin’s downturn to record U.S. market cap-to-GDP levels, low equity volatility and rising gold prices, warning of potential contagion into stocks.

What to know:

  • Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warns that collapsing crypto prices and a potential bitcoin slide toward $10,000 could signal mounting financial stress and foreshadow a U.S. recession.
  • McGlone argues the post-2008 "buy the dip" era may be ending as crypto weakens, stock market valuations sit near century highs relative to GDP, and equity volatility remains unusually low.
  • Market analyst Jason Fernandes counters that a drop to $10,000 bitcoin would likely require a severe systemic shock and recession, calling such an outcome a low-probability tail risk compared with a milder reset or consolidation.