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Donald Trumps Harris on Polymarket Once Again

Harris led Trump in early August and betting odds reached 50-50 on the marketplace last month but shifted to Trump’s favor over the weekend.

Updated Sep 3, 2024, 9:03 p.m. Published Sep 2, 2024, 8:49 a.m. 1 min read
Donald J. Trump at a rally (Gerd Altmann, modified by CoinDesk)
  • Trump pulled ahead with a 51% chance of regaining the U.S. presidency.
  • Traders have placed $99 million in on-chain bets on Trump winning the election, with over $95 million put on Harris.

Election punters on Polymarket are favoring Republican candidate Donald Trump once again as Democrat Kamala Harris’ odds slipped to 47% over the weekend from even odds earlier.

Odds of Trump winning the November elections surged to highs of 71% in July before tumbling to lows of 44% in August as incumbent Joe Biden said he would not contest before Harris was announced as the candidate. Her chances rose to over 55% in early to mid-August to emerge as a favorite.

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Harris’ appeal has drifted lower in the past weeks among traders on Polymarket, while Trump’s has gradually climbed back over 50%. He is again in the lead after nearly two weeks of even odds.

(Polymarket)

Traders have placed $99 million in on-chain bets on Trump winning the election, with over $95 million put on Harris.

Harris’ odds have slipped amid outcry for a proposal to tax unrealized gains for people worth over $100 million. Meanwhile, Trump’s odds have increased as he promotes an upcoming decentralized finance project that could offer “high yields” for crypto users.

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(Anne Nygård/Unsplash)

Investors are abandoning bitcoin and gold, perhaps sensing a coming end to Middle East hostilities.

What to know:

  • JPMorgan says the pandemic-era “debasement trade,” centered on bitcoin and then gold, is cooling, with recent outflows from bitcoin and gold ETFs and reduced institutional futures positions reflecting a broader pullback from macro hedges.
  • The bank's report suggested investors may be getting ahead of a U.S.-Iran peace deal.