Matrixport's $45K End of Year Target for Bitcoin Looks to Be Accurate

Predicting the price of bitcoin [BTC] has historically been as accurate as looking into a crystal ball, with all sorts of past price predictions that have been way off the mark – some hilariously so.

But Matrixport seems to have nailed it this year – or at least gets points for being the closest contender – as the $45,000 end-of-year price prediction it made on February 1 will very likely come true.

Bitcoin spent the early hours of Asia’s Friday business day teasing $44,000, and if current trends hold, it will breach $45,000 by the end of the month.

“The 2023 bitcoin rally unfolded in five phases: starting with a reaction to inflation trends, followed by a banking crisis response, a surge due to BlackRock’s ETF filing, a boost from Federal Reserve policy shifts, and finally, developments in SEC regulations regarding bitcoin ETFs, "Markus Thielen, Matrixport’s head of research, wrote in a new report.

“Bitcoin does not move randomly. A mixture of crowd psychology and macro factors is the key driver. Liquidity and market structure considerations help with understanding shorter-term moves,” Thielen continued.

Some have wondered why the crypto rally seems so focused on bitcoin: the world’s largest digital asset is up 164% year-to-date, while ether is up 99%.

“Bankruptcies of crypto lending and borrowing platforms in 2022 and with the dismantling of the crypto onramp-related banks in March 2023, Thielen wrote. “Retail had difficulty swapping fiat into crypto, and this is why this year’s crypto rally primarily focused on bitcoin — instead of the higher beta altcoins that retail investors tend to favor."

Now, the question is how will bitcoin respond to an ETF that’s approved.

A prediction market contract on Polymarket says there’s a 77% chance of this approval coming by January 15.