HYPE leads crypto rebound as traders position for volatility breakout

The crypto market showed signs of a cautious recovery on Thursday, with bitcoin BTC$77,640.65 trading at $77,900, up from Tuesday's low of $76,100, and ether (ETH) at $2,130 after adding just 0.1% since midnight UTC.

The altcoin sector remains mixed. While Hyperliquid (HYPE) rose for a fifth straight day, adding 6.5% to notch a 53% gain over the past week, privacy coins gave back a portion of Wednesday's gains.

U.S. equities snapped a three-day losing streak on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 index 1.5% higher as investors anticipated a strong earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA), which beat forecasts with record quarterly revenues of $81.62 billion.

Oil prices dipped as U.S. President Donald Trump said a peace deal with Iran was in its "final stages," providing a boost to risk assets.

Derivatives positioning

• Crypto futures volume increased 15% to $165.7 billion, open interest rose nearly 1% to $128 billion and liquidations jumped 72% to $266 million, ending a two-day streak of declining activity.
• Hyperliquid’s HYPE token led the top 100 coins with open interest reaching the highest level since Feb. 19. Coupled with positive cumulative volume delta (CVD) and slightly positive funding, the increase suggests aggressive market-order buyers, not passive limit order buyers, are in control without yet showing signs of overheating.
• A similar bullish trend was evident in privacy coin zcash (ZEC), which has dominated daily open interest rankings throughout the week.
• DASH futures are also heating up. Open interest jumped 38% to 1.98 million tokens, but the "boom-bust" price rejection at $54, alongside negative CVD, suggests sellers are aggressively fading rallies with market orders.
• Negative CVDs in other assets like XMR, SUI, TON, HBAR, M, BNB and CC further indicate that sellers are being aggressive with market orders rather than trading passively via limit orders.
• Bitcoin's futures market remains stagnant with open interest trapped in the 720K-750K BTC range for a seventh day. The lack of momentum is mirrored in the ether (ETH) market.
• Ether's 30-day implied volatility dropped to a 2026 low of 53%, breaking through floor levels established in late 2024, while bitcoin’s BVIV held steady near 40%, suggesting broad calm amid macro risks.
• In the options market, a large block trade involved the sale of an XRP short straddle, representing a high-conviction bet on the token's spot price remaining range-bound around $1.40 through late June.
• For both BTC and ETH, the strangle has emerged as the most favored options strategy on Deribit over the past 24 hours, suggesting traders are positioning for a breakout from the current low-volatility regime.

Token talk

• HYPE is justifiably receiving plaudits this week, with a gain of more than than 20% in the past 24 hours as daily trading volume has jumped 135% to $1.3 billion.
• The CoinDesk Memecoin Select Index (CDMEME) fell 0.2% on Thursday and 0.9% over 24 hours. All the other CoinDesk benchmarks are higher over a 24-hour period, while the CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) outperformed its peers.
• A crypto analyst pseudonamed "skew" described the altcoin market as being in a "make or break" position this week, alluding to the total crypto market cap excluding bitcoin, which has posted a series of higher highs and higher lows since February.
• Speculation is ramping up again across several altcoin trading pairs, including doublezero (2Z), which has seen trading volume surge by more than 410%, leading to a 17% rise in the token over the past 24 hours.