Record breaking stats from bitcoin’s Thursday capitulation signal a bottom is near

Bitcoin's BTC$67,408.62 Feb. 5 collapse will go down as one of the most historic selloffs on record. Below are the key statistics that help define the event and indicate how much further there may be to fall.

The bitcoin price started the day near $73,000 and fell to a low around $62,000, a drop — or, as some market participants call it, a candle — of more than $10,000. The day's 14% decline was the largest single-day drop since November 2022, during the implosion of crypto exchange FTX.

The Fear and Greed Index dropped into single digits, a level seen only a handful of times in bitcoin’s 17-year history. At the same time, bitcoin was the third most oversold it has ever been on the RSI, an indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements.

Supply in profit and loss

The circulating supply in loss, meaning the number of coins that last moved at prices higher than the market price, surged to almost 10 million BTC. That is the fourth-highest level ever, comparable with the 2015, 2019 and 2022 bear-market bottoms.

Another measure, the amount of long-term holders' circulating supply that is at a loss, reached 4.6 million BTC. At the lows of previous bear markets, the figure exceeded 5 million BTC, suggesting this metric is approaching, but has not yet fully matched, prior extremes.

Supply in profit and supply in loss have nearly converged, a condition that has historically aligned with the bottom of major market declines. At present, roughly 10 million BTC sit in profit and 10 million BTC sit in loss.

While nobody knows for certain whether the bottom is in for bitcoin, history suggests it is likely close, especially with bitcoin already recovering toward $68,000.

Still, market participants may be waiting for bitcoin to test its 200-week moving average, currently near $58,011.