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U.S. bitcoin ETF weekly outflows largest since November may signal BTC price bottom
This week's redemptions reached the highest level since November, a signal that often marks a local bottom in the price of bitcoin.
Updated Jan 23, 2026, 7:05 p.m. Published Jan 23, 2026, 10:20 a.m.
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What to know:
- U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.22 billion in weekly outflows, the most since November, according to SoSoValue.
- Historical ETF outflow spikes often coincide with local bottoms.
- The bitcoin U.S. ETF average cost basis is $84,099.
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U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their largest weekly outflows since November in a possible sign the largest cryptocurrency may be about to rebound.
A net $1.22 billion left the market in the four days ended Thursday, with Tuesday and Wednesday seeing withdrawals of $479.7 million and $708.7 million, respectively, according to data from SoSoValue. Bitcoin dropped 5% in the same period and is now little changed since the start of the year.
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Periods of heavy ETF outflows often coincide with local bottoms in the bitcoin price. In November, which also saw a four-day withdrawal of $1.22 billion, bitcoin formed a low around $80,000 before recovering to above $90,000 in the days that followed.
A similar pattern emerged in March 2025, just before President Trump’s tariff turmoil, when bitcoin dropped to $76,000. In August 2024 bitcoin bottomed near $49,000 as the yen carry trade unwound.
The average cost basis for ETF investors currently stands at $84,099. According to Glassnode data, this level has acted as a key area of support, notably during the November pullback near $80,000 as well as in April 2025.
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- Panelists said yen carry trade unwinds and rising margin requirements pressured crypto alongside gold and silver.
- Despite volatility and outflows, roughly $100 billion remains in bitcoin ETFs.
- A more permissive regulatory climate is pushing institutions toward public blockchains and stablecoin-based settlement.
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